2009 Off-Season
However, I wanted to bounce the question over to Bryan at the Broncos Stable and get his perspective. His response was typically thoughtful and informative. And then some.
Here are the points I presented to Bryan, with the request to please inform me if I'm smoking wacky weed just by dreaming this up:
- Obviously, the Rams have a need at defensive line, DT in particular, but DE becoming a priority with the advancing age of Leonard Little. So there's probably desire.
- Moss's rookie season with the Broncos was widely viewed to be a bust, and his 2008 wasn't much better. However, he's still young and not too far removed from his heroics with UF. These next few weeks may be the last chance to deal him, while he still has the "untapped potential" label on him.
- Denver's coaching staff and front office has undergone a major overhaul - Moss is now an inherited problem, and few in the organization would have ties to the player now. (Is this correct?)
- Billy Devaney and Brian Xander, GMs of the Rams and Broncos respectively, both came out of the Atlanta Falcons organization, and presumably have a working relationship. What kind of relationship? We don't know.
- The Rams under Spagnuolo and D-coordinator Ken Flajole, are expected to operate a north-south defense, with linemen expected to have speed and vertical attack. An undersized player, weight-wise, like Moss potentially fits this role.
I guess the question is, from your perspective, do you see the Broncos trading Moss, and what kind of return would they be looking for? It seems that their first priority in player movement is finding a new home for Brandon Marshall -- or at least shutting him up. Is a Rams' third-round pick next year enough to get a deal done, for the former first-round talent?[As it turns out, I may be grossly overbidding] His answer, after the break:
Thanks are due to Jeremy Yingling of Infojocks.com for forwarding me the link in the first place. Some day, one of us is going to make a pretty hilarious infographic using the Turd Watch data as a source.) Thanks also to VanRam and the Turf Show Times for having me on. no comments
These next six individuals are very tightly bunched, as you can see from the +/- ratings. There will be plenty more wildcards that emerge as the season unfolds, to be sure, but these are my best guesses.
#7: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (+/- 1.5 wins) Lanky, fast, soft hands and a rapidly developing skillset overall -- what's not to like? DRC became a huge difference maker on the field for the Cardinals' second half of the season, once he earned a starting job. And he's one of the potential drivers of whether or not Arizona will continue taking steps forward this season. In the modern NFL, you want as many weapons on the field as you can. Arizona has more threats on offense alone than the rest of the division combined, and Rodgers-Cromartie's field vision and open-field running ability (witness his 40-yard average on interception returns last season) gives them an additional threat when the offense is on the sidelines. When you play six times against some of the most scattershot quarterbacks in the league, that's a huge advantage. That is, if he can continue his growth, and avoid a Tye Hill-esque sophomore slump. So far this offseason, Kurt Warner is a believer:
But for Mike Jones, Steve McNair is a Super Bowl champion
We're in the slowest period of the NFL calendar right now, when the only movement on the news wires tends to be announcements of low-level draft pick signings. Beat writers scrabble for fluff pieces and can usually turn a cautiously optimistic coach's quote into a 1000-word feature. Unless Brett Favre decides to stage another one-man show, there just isn't much to talk about.
So when news hit of the shooting of Steve McNair, it has spread like balled lightning on a western plain, casting an eerie light on everything. And from the outset of the story's development, it became clear that this was not a sports story, not an NFL story, but a human story. The story of a person whose life had taken a sudden, tragic turn.
I was listening to some drive-time sports talk yesterday, listening to D'Marco Farr speculate on the shooting, and the evolving circumstances in his life as a newly retired player. Recent estrangement from his wife. A new girl half his age. A prototypical "midlife crisis" - except it ended with a bullet.
The thing that struck me about the story is that, during his career, you couldn't have asked for a better player to have in the locker room than Steve McNair. He personnified determination and leadership in the quarterback position. Tennessee Titans owner Bud Adams eulogized him as "one of the finest players to play for our organization and one of the most beloved players by our fans."
As Steve Spagnuolo came into the Rams head coaching job, he opened discourse about the team by talking not about gameplans, but a strategy for rebuilding the personality of the team.
During his playing career, you couldn't ask for a stronger example of this mythical standard than McNair.
He fought against the dual stigma of being a Division 1-AA quarterback, and a black quarterback. When he was drafted in 1995, the NFL was pre-Rooney Rule, and still had a widespread (but veiled) belief that white dudes had to be the braintrust of your team, your head coaches, your coordinators, your quarterbacks. There were less than a handful of successful black QBs -- Warren Moon, Doug Williams, and Randall Cunningham, most prominently -- to point to and say different. McNair campaigned gallantly, never bitterly, and finally earned the starting job in 1997. By 1999, he led them to their only Super Bowl appearance. (Coincidentally, 1999's draft featured three black quarterbacks drafted in the first round: Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, and Daunte Culpepper. The door had been opened.)
And that Super Bowl -- an epic game. The Titans were a ferocious opponent for the Rams on that season's last Sunday, and McNair very nearly stole the game away with a goal-line pass in the game's closing seconds.
I think it's fair to say that McNair set a new standard, and that his play over the course of his career helped make the term "black quarterback" obsolete. He was a great quarterback, period. No other qualifiers were necessary.
And yet, improbably for this "pillar" of NFL citizenship, this gruesome (and salacious) end to life.
What does this, in turn, say about Spagnuolo and his quest for a team based on the Four Pillars? Maybe only that you can only know a man, a future teammate or even the guy next to you in the locker room, up to a point. No matter how they interview, or what their past looks like, you can't predict the future. You can't stop a man from being human, no matter how good he seems.
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#1: Kurt Warner (+/- 5 Wins)
There's no question that had Kurt not elevated his play back to Pro Bowl levels last season, the Cardinals would have stumbled further back into mediocrity, and it's even conceivable that the 7-9 49ers might have won the NFC West. Yes, the true strength of the team is their outstanding triple-threat of receivers, but Kurt got them the ball quickly, accurately, and often in stride. And whether you think Matt Leinert has untapped reservoirs as a pro QB, the Cardinals do not play well with him under center.
Now Kurt has demanded and received a healthy contract extension ($19 mil guaranteed over the next 2 years) from Arizona, and he seemingly has job security and a still-improving talent base with the addition of Beanie Wells. However, in his years in a Rams uniform, the big money came saddled with serious injury problems. He played for peanuts from his dream 1999 season through 2001. In the 2002 offseason, his salary tripled to $6 mil per season, but his busted hand just couldn't grip the football, or deliver it on target. Meanwhile, Coach Martz dreamed up more and more exotic (and long-developing) pass plays with less and less protection for his suddenly fragile QB. Warner started just seven (!) games over the next two contract years, and tossed 12 INTs against only 4 TDs. The Rams lost all seven games.
The difference between good Kurt and bad Kurt can wreck a team. Plain as that. And Leinert has yet to earn his savior stripes.
#2: Mike Singletary (+/- 4 wins)
We don't want to downplay the success that Singletary had last season. The record of interim coaches is absolutely lousy, across the board. But there are these outliers, these guys who come in and actually succeed in motivating a bunch of losers. Think Goldie Hawn in Wildcats. So the fact that Singletary got 5 wins in eight games after the bye week with this team is pretty impressive.
Even though none of the teams the Niners beat went to the playoffs, or even came close.
Even though two of those wins came against the self-immolating Rams, and one of those was by a single point.
Even though they still don't have a starting quarterback, or an offensive line to protect him.
The one thing you can't say, though, is that this 49ers team was bursting with talent and just needed the right motivation to succeed. No, it's fair to say that this is still very much a rebuilding team, and credit the former linebacker for squeezing 7 wins out of this team, one that had "3-13" written all over it.
So now Singletary has the chance to truly put his conservative run-first, power-football stamp on the organization, and he has done so, albeit with some curious decisions along the way: firing Mike Martz (we're okay with that) but then heavily recruiting locker room failure Scott Linehan to be his offensive coordinator? That's a head-scratcher. Then on draft day, they land superdiva Michael Crabtree in the first round, rather than rebuild the offensive line ... it works if the ballcoach can keep the youngster's head pointed downfield, and can establish him as a legitimate threat on the field. It forces defenses to ease off the run ever so much, to have to respect a true deep threat. But that's only if they can keep their mystery QB upright.
Unlike the Rams, the 49ers have not cleaned house upstairs -- it is still a poisonous, back-biting front office that often lets family politics get in the way of good football decisions. They are more than happy to give Singletary -- a man with very little NFL coaching experience -- full rein over the team, because if the 49ers fail, the front office can place all the blame on him. Meanwhile, last year's uproarious finish has fans thinking delusionally about making a deep playoff run this season, following in the Cardinals' unlikely footsteps. No other coach in this division is on the hot seat like Singletary.
#3: Steven Jackson (+/- 3.5 wins)
Normally, I don't point to a running back and say "this is the player that wins games." The run game in the modern NFL has evolved away from the dominant single-back, now acting as more of a foil for the passing game, and doubling as the outlet for short passes. Twenty years ago, third-and-3 is a running down. Not now. The teams that win games on the ground feature two or even three backs in tandem -- the Giants, Broncos, Dolphins, Panthers, Jaguars and Titans being notable examples.
But the Rams are a different case, because they simply play at a much higher level with SJ on the field. Defenses have to respect Jackson, unlike any other member of last year's Rams offense. His (healthy) presence on the field makes the play-fake more potent (if Bulger can sell it), and his ability to rip a long run and drag would-be tacklers along for the ride gives a boost to the entire team. Moreover, his unnaturally soft hands make him as potent a receiving threat among running backs as there is in the game. His one weakness has been in providing that last line of protection for Bulger, but as an outlet back, that really isn't his role.
Last year, Jackson was seldom healthy or in shape, due in part to his decision to skip the preseason, while holding out for his contract extension. Now that he's got his commitment from the organization, and the organization itself has recommitted itself to winning football, he has been a dedicated participant in offseason workouts, and has spoken of taking more of a vocal leadership role in the locker room. Given how the team responds to him on the field, this should only make Jackson more potent.
#4: Bill Davis (+/- 3 wins)
I know, you're thinking "Who the eff is Bill Davis?" Believe me, even people who know that Bill Davis was hired to be the Cardinals' defensive coordinator this year are thinking the same thing.
The Cardinals won the division last season on the strength of their offense -- they had to, since their defense gave up more points than all but four teams in the league. For this reason, many pundits predicted a quick exit in the playoffs. But the Cardinals' defense in January stiffened up dramatically, most notably in a complete shut-down of the Carolina Panthers' powerful rushing attack. The desert birds' defense got them three wins in the postseason that, by all rights, they probably shouldn't have had.
With Karlos Dansby and Antonio Rogers-Cromartie, the Cardinals have a couple of upper-tier playmakers on defense. However, judging from this article at azcentral.com, it isn't clear whether Davis knows what he's going to do with them.
The good news: Davis was promoted from within, from the linebackers' coach position, so he has familiarity with the weapons at his disposal. The bad news: Davis' only previous experience as a D-coordinator came in San Francisco, from 2005-06, under Mike Nolan. The 49ers gave up 840 points those two years, by far the most in the league.
Yes, the Cardinals' defense wasn't good last season, but there's room for it to get worse. And that puts even more pressure on #1 on this list.
no commentsOne of the perks of writing as part of the fanball network is the connection to Bryan Douglass, writer for the Broncos' Stable and resident optimist in the Josh McDaniels Mind Game (TM). And any good student of the Denver Broncos knows three things:
- How to do the John Elway helicopter spin at the goal line
- How to do the sideline steely glare, patented by Coach Shanahan
- How to evaluate an offensive line.
And it's this third piece of wisdom that is pertinent to the Rams, owners of one of the most disappointing offensive lines in team history. Without naming names, this sounds like it should have been a halfway-decent line:
LT - a 7-time pro-bowler
LG - well-regarded free agent signed from the mighty Titans
C - journeyman veteran, should be capable enough
RG - young nasty blocker who's not afraid to play dirty
RT - 2005 #1 draft pick, and heir apparent at LT
Instead, everything that could go wrong did, with the notable exception of catastrophic injury, such as those that felled Orlando Pace in '07. Bulger's passing lanes collapsed, Steven Jackson got off to a very slow start from his petulant training camp holdout, and Jim Hanifan found out all the words he's not allowed to say on radio. The line didn't develop anything close to a rhythm until the final five games of the season, and by then it was far too late.
The Offensive Line stats at Football Outsiders give us numbers to fuel our perceptions: the Rams' line rated 28th-best as a run-blocking unit, and 23rd as a pass-blocking unit, allowing sacks on 7.8% of pass plays. Additionally, one can lay blame for the Rams' ineffective Drive Stats (23.5 yards per drive, 28th in the league) directly at the line's feet as well. (However, the teams' 1.3 points-per-drive rating, second-to-worst in the league, is more the fault of our departed coaches than the line itself, which generated the red zone opportunities but didn't call the plays inside them.)
Early in the offseason, Billy Devaney took a stand in saying that he wanted to transform the Rams. [City of St Louis: "Amen!"] He wanted to return them to glory. [City of St Louis: "Amen! Bring back Kurt Warner! Bring back the Greatest Show on Turf!"] He wanted to turn them into a power running team. [City of St Louis: "A- ... wait, what? who with?"]
So the Rams poached a coach from one of the premier running teams in the league, in Steve Spagnuolo. They took their medicine while purging the roster of its aging holdovers from the past, including the now underwhelming Pace and underutilized Torry Holt. And Devaney reiterated the mantra, leading up to the draft:
This was after making two impact free-agent signings in mammoth center Jason Brown, and reliable blocking back Mike Karney. And despite media smoke-screens about the Rams drafting Marc Sanchez, or fan outcries for drafting future superstar linebacker Aaron Curry or superdiva Michael Crabtree, it was obvious on draft day that the Rams intended to put money where Devaney's mouth is -- adding beef to the offensive line. Hence, Jason Smith became the "safe pick," even with reports of animated discussion in the war room.
Getting back to our horse-loving friend, Bryan has been working on an in-depth analysis of all 32 offensive lines for the Fanball, in a three-part subscribers-only feature. (Part 1 - Part 2 - Part 3) Without cheating the content -- and the articles are very good reads -- here is how the NFC West stacks up by Douglass' analysis:
| Team | 2009 Rank | 2008 Rank | +/- |
| Arizona Cardinals | 17th | 20th | +3 |
| St Louis Rams | 21st | 29th | +8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 28th | 30th | +2 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 31st | 28th | -3 |
While I could quibble on a couple of his choices -- for example, Bryan is reasonably bullish on the Jaguars despite their terrible showing last season -- it's hard to argue with these rankings or his rationale. It's also hard not to notice how poor this division is as a whole. But one thing is notable: no other team in the league improved as much in these rankings as the Rams. As a wrapup to this post, and a segue into further encouragement into reading the whole series, here's a snippet of Bryan's take on the Rams' offseason:
We'll be following this up in the coming weeks with a graphic look at the offensive line stats, for both rushing and passing. Stay tuned....
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This offseason has been all about one thing for the Saint Louis Rams: Change. And with it, we hope, comes Hope.
We finally rid ourselves of the infighting and backstabbing of yesteryear. We lost the laissez-faire ownership of Ms. Georgia Frontiere. We decapitated the three-headed monster at the top of the organization -- the intellectually corrupt Jay Zygmunt, asleep-at-the-wheel John Shaw, and the human trainwreck known as Scott Linehan.
We established a clear chain of command in the front office, a new leader. One who actively seeks good working relationships throughout the team, and has made his hires accordingly. One who has a (gasp!) positive track record with draft picks. One is more than willing to roll up his sleeves and get to work.
That man is Billy Devaney. And he is our reason for hope.
Now, with that said, we aren't building shrines to him in the corner -- yet. Let this team truly get back on its feet. Let this draft class come in and wow us. Let's get Jason "I'm not Jason Brown" Smith signed for healthy money, and have him and Jason "I'm not Jason Smith" Brown prove their worth on this revamped offensive line. Let's watch as Spagnuolo, the hot head coaching candidate we surely couldn't have hoped for in years past, molds this team to his iron will.
It won't necessarily be a pretty season, especially for all the Greatest Show fans. (I'll bet I can count on one hand the number of completed 40-yard passes we'll see this season.) But that's all right. Because just imagine the alternative. What if:
- Zygmunt got canned, but Shaw remained and rehired Mike Martz
- Devaney walked, and Martz became a Holmgren-esque coach/GM/organizational svengali
- Martz turned the Rams into the Raiders midwest, where "just win baby" is replaced by "shoot, we'll fix that" as the words that make fans cringe
- The Rams try to re-re-resurrect the Greatest Show, with a lead-footed Torry Holt, #2 pick Darrius Hey-Bey (one-upping Al Davis, naturally), one-armed Orlando Pace, and shell-shocked Marc Bulger.
- In order to keep all these offensive veterans around, sacrifices are made on defense, including letting Atogwe go in a draft-day trade, for which we get a future criminal misfit/clubhouse cancer/three-year washout at defensive tackle.
- The Rams become the first team to not only lose every game on the season, but the first team to never have the lead all season.
- The Rams and Raiders both decide to relocate simultaneously to Los Angeles, but all of a sudden the city of angels says "uh, no, never mind. we weren't serious about that whole football stadium thing. we were just yanking your chain, didn't you know?"
- Martz is fired. The new Rams head coach: Scott Linehan. Again. And we enter a Groundhog's Day spiral of insanity.
You think it couldn't happen?
no commentsAt the RamsHerd, we hereby proclaim:
- That professional football is the ultimate in televised sports - 120 mini-dramas, pitting brutes against brains, speed against ferocity, all displayed with brilliant graphic analysis. Therefore, we pledge that our work will sometimes be dramatic, sometimes skillful, sometimes brutal, and sometimes graphic. (visually, that is.)
- That the Rams suck. We all know it, and we aren't going to sugarcoat it. (Hell, we want to know why the Rams suck, so we can see about fixing that.) But at the same time, that there exists greater reason for hope now than there has been since the glory days of the Greatest Show. Therefore, we pledge to be honest at all times, and optimistic as long as it's warranted.
- That sucking sucks. Therefore, we pledge not to suck, as a blog. As a commenting community. As Rams fans.
- That ideas are king. The RamsHerd will be a big tent, welcoming all who bring their own ideas and opinions on the Rams, on football in general, on anything that's pertinent. Don't come here parroting some talkshow host (unless you are a talkshow host), or we will point and laugh.
- That statistics are good things. Therefore, we welcome the use of stats in arguments. We will me using them ourselves.
- That out of all sports, football is the poorest in true statistical measures of players' impact on the field. (Even hockey tracks "hits" ... perhaps the most integral part of their game. And yet football does not track "blocks".) Therefore, we welcome those opinions who tell the story of what happens on the field that stats don't -- or can't -- account for.






