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2009 Off-Season

Written by Will | 14 July 2009

In the comments section yesterday, new reader Rodney asked if we should be pursuing the Broncos' Jarvis Moss. At first glance, I was not very enthusiastic about the idea, but the more I thought about it, the more the former Florida Gator standout seemed like a potentially attractive -- and potentially realistic -- low-risk acquisition. However, I wanted to bounce the question over to Bryan at the Broncos Stable and get his perspective. His response was typically thoughtful and informative. And then some. Here are the points I presented to Bryan, with the request to please inform me if I'm smoking wacky weed just by dreaming this up:
  1. Obviously, the Rams have a need at defensive line, DT in particular, but DE becoming a priority with the advancing age of Leonard Little. So there's probably desire.
  2. Moss's rookie season with the Broncos was widely viewed to be a bust, and his 2008 wasn't much better. However, he's still young and not too far removed from his heroics with UF. These next few weeks may be the last chance to deal him, while he still has the "untapped potential" label on him.
  3. Denver's coaching staff and front office has undergone a major overhaul - Moss is now an inherited problem, and few in the organization would have ties to the player now. (Is this correct?)
  4. Billy Devaney and Brian Xander, GMs of the Rams and Broncos respectively, both came out of the Atlanta Falcons organization, and presumably have a working relationship. What kind of relationship? We don't know.
  5. The Rams under Spagnuolo and D-coordinator Ken Flajole, are expected to operate a north-south defense, with linemen expected to have speed and vertical attack. An undersized player, weight-wise, like Moss potentially fits this role.
I guess the question is, from your perspective, do you see the Broncos trading Moss, and what kind of return would they be looking for? It seems that their first priority in player movement is finding a new home for Brandon Marshall -- or at least shutting him up. Is a Rams' third-round pick next year enough to get a deal done, for the former first-round talent?
[As it turns out, I may be grossly overbidding] His answer, after the break:
Jarvis Moss, one of the more intriguing members of the roster we see today. Rumors had the Broncos shopping the young lineman for a late pick on the second day of the NFL Draft, and if that's true, it puts his standing with the current regime in perspective. Of course, it may say more than they couldn't find a team to bite. In general the kid is viewed as a failure due to his inability to progress the talents he showcased in college into the professional game, and that is blamed, almost in full, on his mental shortcomings. Reports indicate he struggled to grasp the playbook, he couldn't find his way out of the mental cloud, and thus the team found no reason for trust. Dedicated focus to change flaws in technique proved fruitless while persistent pressures to get him on track with the mental aspects of the job were met with frustration. When he was given opportunities he failed to take advantage and he became a project for a staff that no longer works in Denver. Without a place to send him the Broncos of today, led by defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, are reportedly trying him at various positions. Locals are focusing on his potential contributions in the 3-4 defense we expect to see as the primary scheme of choice and Moss has seen time both on the line and as a member of the linebacking corps in OTAs. However, we do not hear any reports indicating the reviews from this staff have changed significantly from those put forth by Shanahan and Co. It seems obvious a change of scenery could help (it certainly wouldn't hurt). And you are correct... there are no real ties to the current organization, and with the widespread changes we've seen throughout the roster it would be fair to assume Nolan and McDaniels have already begun to construct their vision of the Denver Broncos defense for 2009. By all accounts, Moss won't be part of that equation. He's one of ten defensive ends on the current roster, and most will not be staying. I would interject a note of personal analysis at this point: if I were the general manager for the St. Louis Rams, I might find it difficult to suggest our team should trade for a player (a) no other team was willing to consider for the pittance of a 6th- or 7th-round draft pick just a few weeks ago, and (b) that may be available as a free agent in a few weeks if the reports from Denver are true. There are all kinds of motivations and conversations and influences that come into play, but at face value you would think Moss would be coming available at some point in the near future. If you want to practice patience you could wait for his release, but if the Rams are truly interested in making the wager, if they want to bring him in asap to start his eduction, and if they would like to avoid competing for his services on the open market they could approach the Broncos now. I would suspect the deal would be simple and would represent a "win" (at least in theory) for both sides.
Note: Point taken. A Rams' third-rounder would appear to be a massive over-bid, if the rumors of his being floated (and rejected) for a seventh-rounder on draft day are correct.
I believe your thoughts on the Spagnuolo system and Moss' potential place in that plan are correct as well. To be fair, the Giants were lucky in having guys like Mike Strahan and Justin Tuck, quick players that didn't give up size or strength for acceleration. However, guys like that are few and far between and the allure of Moss coming out of college was his speed. He worked for a formidable Florida defense, he was the leading pocket attack man for their effort, and those were the traits that earned him such tall stature in the Draft (at least in the eyes of Mike Shanahan).
Note: Doing a little further digging, it appears that a big knock on Moss was his strength -- his 16 reps at the 2007 NFL Combine were the lowest among his group, though with his frame and some weight training, he could be expected to show improvement.
Asked for perspective I would say this: while I am concerned that this kid supposedly struggled to get his intelligence on par with the NFL world, I would ask what any of us witnessed from the Shanahan regime to suggest the defense was capable of helping him along. The guy's best defensive units were inherited. Shanny walked in, enjoyed Al Wilson and Neil Smith and John Mobley until their time came to an end, and he never recovered, despite numerous wagers and efforts, after they were gone. The only defensive players of note added by Shanahan have been Champ Bailey, coming via trade (the Clinton Portis deal), and D.J. Williams, coming via the draft. It would be fair to suggest the true talents of Moss may not have been captured by that regime... but it may also be fair to suggest Shanahan was foolish for drafting him in the first place. In the end I doubt you really know what you're getting in Jarvis Moss. I tend to believe he is, at best, a marginal defender that could spend a handful of years in the NFL as a backup... but I'm not Ken Flajole. If anyone can key into his benefits, I would think that new crew in St. Lou might be up to the challenge.
From the sound of it, there are a lot of similarities between Moss and Leonard Little: early career derailed, seeing very little playing time, and still very raw, skill-wise, though with a potentially high ceiling. Primary rushing attribute is pure speed, but needs help (and strength) to become an impact player. However, Dick Vermeil and the Rams stuck with Little and reaped the benefit, while Denver appears ready to cut bait with Moss. Moss could benefit from a season working out like a demon and playing mostly special teams, with Little coaching him on technique and attitude. Then in 2010, we may be able to fully tap into his talents for a low-cost replacement for Little, who would be entering his age-36 season. The one obstacle to a trade would be his salary: He signed a $15 mil/5 year deal in 2007, with $8 million of that guaranteed. With the Broncos on the hook only for that last $2 mil of guaranteed money this season, it becomes affordable to cut him, and definitely more attractive for a team like the Rams without that $3mil salary automatically attached. no comments

Written by Will | 12 July 2009

In my just-completed guest spot on this week's Turf Show Radio podcast, I made reference to a site (I misremembered it as The Smoking Gun) that was keeping a running tally of NFL player arrests and other negative PR moments that are the bane of Roger Goodell's existence. This list was appropriately called the "Turd Watch." The Turd Watch was maintained by ProFootballTalk.com for the 2007-08 seasons, and looked like it was going to continue until just recently, when PFT was purchased by NBC Sports. Now that they and Bob Costas are a part of the same organization, I guess they have to class things up a bit, leaving little room for discussions along the lines of Drew Magary's guest column defending the nature of the NFL turd. So now PFT's Turd Watch has a new name, and won't be quite so cheeky. But it's still an interesting reference point, as one measure of the "Four Pillars" mantra that Coach Spagnuolo cited in his philosophy of building the Rams. One of Magary's most salient points was that every locker room has its share of "turds," and how the coaching staff deals with those players -- both publicly and privately -- may be a portent of their future success.
Thanks are due to Jeremy Yingling of Infojocks.com for forwarding me the link in the first place. Some day, one of us is going to make a pretty hilarious infographic using the Turd Watch data as a source.) Thanks also to VanRam and the Turf Show Times for having me on. no comments

Written by Will | 12 July 2009

VanRam from the Turf Show Times has invited me to join in some offseason discussion on their radio/podcast tonight at 5:00 pm CST. Should be an enjoyable listen, as we discuss the RamsHerd NFC West Power Rankings, and possibly some high-minded discussion of Coach Spagnuolo's "Four Pillars", possibly including the hypothetical question of whether or not Lawrence Phillips should be invited into the locker room to deliver a "scared straight" session. Here's how to tune in: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/VanRam/2009/07/12/Turf-Show-Radio no comments

Written by Will | 08 July 2009

Part 1 of these rankings named the four top wildcards in the division: the Cardinals' Kurt Warner (#1) and defensive coordinator Bill Davis (#4), Mike Singletary of the Niners (#2) and Steven Jackson (#3) of the Rams. These rankings also gave my thumbnail of how many games in the standings these individuals could swing. Naturally, the first comments were "what, no Seahawks?" I'll be a boor and answer the question with another question: honestly, what's the ceiling for the Seahawks this season? Maybe 5 wins, 6 at the most, given the crumbling offensive line, a mismatched receiving corps, castoffs at running back, and a suddenly very aged quarterback? On the other hand, what's their floor? How bad could it get? Outside of some sort of time-travel catastrophe where the team decides to hold OTAs in the Kingdome circa 1994 and it collapses and crushes Leroy Hill, Lofa Tatupu, and Aaron Curry, the defense should be stout enough and opportunistic enough to keep the team close, allowing for at least 2-3 wins. So by these back-of-the-envelope calculations, you've got a swing of maybe three wins that somebody might deserve credit for. Not enough to rank in the top four, but we'll award two of those potential wins to #5 on our list... #5: Seneca Wallace (+/- 2 wins) Now, this isn't a prediction that Wallace will win the starting job out of preseason, or that he's The Answer or The Future at quarterback for the Seahawks. But the cold hard facts from last season are this: Matt Hasselbeck earned a 57.8 rating, barely beating out the likes of Brad Johnson and Trent Green for the league's worst QB. In games he started, the 'Hawks were 1-7. (The one win came courtesy of the Rams' complete inability to defend the run -- Julius Jones and TJ Duckett combined for twice as many touches as Hasselbeck had throws.) Yes, the Seahawks had massive receiver troubles, but those troubles were the same when Hasselbeck went down and Wallace had to step up. Meanwhile, Wallace's QB rating was a very respectable 87 -- in the same neighborhood as Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler, both anointed saviors of their respective teams. Moreover, he has some escapability, and ability to freelance -- important qualities when the pocket has more holes than Hollister jeans. Qualities that the 34-year-old Hasselbeck and his battered spine no longer have. At some point, he will get the ball this coming season. And therein lies the small potential for the Seahawks to blow their chance at a top-3 draft pick. #6: Michael Crabtree (+/- 2 wins) It's possible that this pick will bust. That Crabtree just won't connect with [starting quarterback TBD]. That his offseason foot and ankle problems will hobble him more than expected. Or that the whispered reports of his diva-like attitude will drive a wedge between his ego and the Singletary vision of the team. It's more likely, though, that Crabtree will add a dimension that has been lacking in San Francisco since the departure of Terrell Owens. A true #1 receiver, and a true red-zone threat. In college, Crabtree thrived on making the big catches in traffic -- a vital skill against the higher level of NFL competition. Outside of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in Arizona perhaps, the division doesn't have upper-level cornerbacks to stay with him and neutralize his impact. Last season, the Niners turned the Isaac Bruce signing into the classic low-risk, high-reward scenario, as he became their leading receiver -- and caught more touchdowns than any Niners receiver since 2003. This year, that signing pays off double as the Bruce is ideally positioned to both mentor Crabtree in the finer arts of route-running, and serve as a still-legitimate #2 option, keeping defenses from overloading coverage on the rookie. Bruce caught 7 TDs last year. That's their high-water mark since Terrell Owens grabbed 9, five seasons ago. Crabtree might just surpass both of those marks in his debut season -- assuming [starting quarterback TBD] can get him the ball.
These next six individuals are very tightly bunched, as you can see from the +/- ratings. There will be plenty more wildcards that emerge as the season unfolds, to be sure, but these are my best guesses.
#7: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (+/- 1.5 wins) Lanky, fast, soft hands and a rapidly developing skillset overall -- what's not to like? DRC became a huge difference maker on the field for the Cardinals' second half of the season, once he earned a starting job. And he's one of the potential drivers of whether or not Arizona will continue taking steps forward this season. In the modern NFL, you want as many weapons on the field as you can. Arizona has more threats on offense alone than the rest of the division combined, and Rodgers-Cromartie's field vision and open-field running ability (witness his 40-yard average on interception returns last season) gives them an additional threat when the offense is on the sidelines. When you play six times against some of the most scattershot quarterbacks in the league, that's a huge advantage. That is, if he can continue his growth, and avoid a Tye Hill-esque sophomore slump. So far this offseason, Kurt Warner is a believer:
"The guy who continues to impress me is DRC," Warner said. "I see improvement there. He's the guy standing out to me, more than anybody in this camp." -- source: RotoTimes
#8: Alex Barron (+/- 1 win), #9 Walter Jones (+/- 1 win) Perhaps the smartest left tackle in the game, and perhaps the dumbest -- yet each has an equal chance of swinging their team's fate this season. Jones is a perennial pro-bowler and veritable hall-of-famer who knows how to do his job better than anyone in the division. The only question about Jones is whether his body, coming off microfracture surgery to his knee, will allow him to perform even close to the level at which he's accustomed. When he lost linemate Steve Hutchinson, the Seahawks vaunted power running game took a major step back. Now coach Mora hopes to resurrect it -- even with Jones it will be difficult. Without him it simply won't happen. Not this season. Barron, young and physically gifted, has been a perennial punching bag for Rams fans seemingly since day one. He is notorious for his false starts and blown assignments, even though he has made incremental progress in cutting down on both of them. Now he has been asked to slide over to left tackle to ease the transition of The Future of the Rams' line, #2 overall pick Jason Smith. The responsibilities of the left and right tackle aren't that different -- the difference is that, for a right handed quarterback, if his right tackle blows an assignment, the QB can see it and make a snap decision, and either protect himself or even salvage a play by hitting a hot read. However, if the left tackle whiffs a block, the QB become roadkill. According to Stats.com, Barron single-handedly allowed 7.5 sacks at the right tackle spot last season. If he can't miraculously transform into a league-average LT, the Rams' hopes for showing improvements this season are lost. #10: These Guys (+/- 1 win) #11: Frank Gore (+/- 1/2 win) At this stage in his career, Gore is what he is -- a dependable beast on short yardage, but too lumbering to break a run or a game wide open. Additionally, his receptions have decreased for three consecutive years, perhaps indicating that he's reached his ceiling as an offensive weapon. However, he should expect a healthy increase in carries under the Jimmy Raye offense, and with the re-addition of his favorite blocking back to the roster, Gore has a mild chance of recapturing that dominant form of 2006. #12: You (+/- 1/2 win) Okay, this is admittedly kind of corny. But St Louisans should remember that the Edward Jones Dome was built as a football stadium first, and a convention center second. On gameday, we should be rolling up those welcome mats that have been so graciously extended to our opponents. We should be rude and downright inhospitable, not only to the other team, but their fans as well. We should be standing in the way of those pesky traveling out-of-towners, not gladly handing our tickets over for beer money come time for holiday shopping. The last time the Rams were on prime time TV was that infamous Monday night game in December 2006 against Chicago, a 42-27 loss that sounded like a home win -- judging from all the Bears fans in our dome. This Rams team has transformed from one of the oldest rosters into one of the league's youngest in a matter of months. Our front office has transformed from one of the league's least competent, and most fractured, into something resembling a real-life football organization. Yes the team is for sale, and yes the team may opt out of its lease in 5 years. No, those excuses don't hold water when the team has taken every sincere and necessary step to truly give this franchise a restart in this town. It's time to step up. no comments

Written by Will | 07 July 2009

But for Mike Jones, Steve McNair is a Super Bowl champion
But for Mike Jones, Steve McNair is a Super Bowl champion

We're in the slowest period of the NFL calendar right now, when the only movement on the news wires tends to be announcements of low-level draft pick signings. Beat writers scrabble for fluff pieces and can usually turn a cautiously optimistic coach's quote into a 1000-word feature. Unless Brett Favre decides to stage another one-man show, there just isn't much to talk about.

So when news hit of the shooting of Steve McNair, it has spread like balled lightning on a western plain, casting an eerie light on everything. And from the outset of the story's development, it became clear that this was not a sports story, not an NFL story, but a human story. The story of a person whose life had taken a sudden, tragic turn.

I was listening to some drive-time sports talk yesterday, listening to D'Marco Farr speculate on the shooting, and the evolving circumstances in his life as a newly retired player. Recent estrangement from his wife. A new girl half his age. A prototypical "midlife crisis" - except it ended with a bullet.

The thing that struck me about the story is that, during his career, you couldn't have asked for a better player to have in the locker room than Steve McNair. He personnified determination and leadership in the quarterback position. Tennessee Titans owner Bud Adams eulogized him as "one of the finest players to play for our organization and one of the most beloved players by our fans."

As Steve Spagnuolo came into the Rams head coaching job, he opened discourse about the team by talking not about gameplans, but a strategy for rebuilding the personality of the team.

"I'm not about predictions, I'm not about bold statements. But we hope that we're going to be about faith, character, core values and team first. Those will be the four pillars we will hang our hat on." -- quoted by Bryan Burwell

During his playing career, you couldn't ask for a stronger example of this mythical standard than McNair.

He fought against the dual stigma of being a Division 1-AA quarterback, and a black quarterback. When he was drafted in 1995, the NFL was pre-Rooney Rule, and still had a widespread (but veiled) belief that white dudes had to be the braintrust of your team, your head coaches, your coordinators, your quarterbacks. There were less than a handful of successful black QBs -- Warren Moon, Doug Williams, and Randall Cunningham, most prominently -- to point to and say different. McNair campaigned gallantly, never bitterly, and finally earned the starting job in 1997. By 1999, he led them to their only Super Bowl appearance. (Coincidentally, 1999's draft featured three black quarterbacks drafted in the first round: Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, and Daunte Culpepper. The door had been opened.)

And that Super Bowl -- an epic game. The Titans were a ferocious opponent for the Rams on that season's last Sunday, and McNair very nearly stole the game away with a goal-line pass in the game's closing seconds.

I think it's fair to say that McNair set a new standard, and that his play over the course of his career helped make the term "black quarterback" obsolete. He was a great quarterback, period. No other qualifiers were necessary.

And yet, improbably for this "pillar" of NFL citizenship, this gruesome (and salacious) end to life.

What does this, in turn, say about Spagnuolo and his quest for a team based on the Four Pillars? Maybe only that you can only know a man, a future teammate or even the guy next to you in the locker room, up to a point. No matter how they interview, or what their past looks like, you can't predict the future. You can't stop a man from being human, no matter how good he seems.

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Written by Will | 03 July 2009

Mike Sando's NFC West blog on ESPN has become a great daily check-in for keeping tabs on the division. Recently, Sando posted a link to a Seattle Times blog, listing the "Power Rankings" for the Seahawks heading into the season. Since then, similar rankings have been blogged up for the 49ers and Rams. Now there's nothing more that we love more than a good Power Ranking, if only because it gives us something to argue about. But what's interesting is that each of these is only focused on players. And, except for the defending NFC champion Cardinals, each team in the division is looking at major changes in coaching personnel. With that in mind, here's part 1 of my NFC West-wide set of Power Rankings: the 12 biggest single influencers of how this division will shake out, along with my overeducated guesses of just how important these people are. #1: Kurt Warner (+/- 5 Wins) There's no question that had Kurt not elevated his play back to Pro Bowl levels last season, the Cardinals would have stumbled further back into mediocrity, and it's even conceivable that the 7-9 49ers might have won the NFC West. Yes, the true strength of the team is their outstanding triple-threat of receivers, but Kurt got them the ball quickly, accurately, and often in stride. And whether you think Matt Leinert has untapped reservoirs as a pro QB, the Cardinals do not play well with him under center. Now Kurt has demanded and received a healthy contract extension ($19 mil guaranteed over the next 2 years) from Arizona, and he seemingly has job security and a still-improving talent base with the addition of Beanie Wells. However, in his years in a Rams uniform, the big money came saddled with serious injury problems. He played for peanuts from his dream 1999 season through 2001. In the 2002 offseason, his salary tripled to $6 mil per season, but his busted hand just couldn't grip the football, or deliver it on target. Meanwhile, Coach Martz dreamed up more and more exotic (and long-developing) pass plays with less and less protection for his suddenly fragile QB. Warner started just seven (!) games over the next two contract years, and tossed 12 INTs against only 4 TDs. The Rams lost all seven games. The difference between good Kurt and bad Kurt can wreck a team. Plain as that. And Leinert has yet to earn his savior stripes. #2: Mike Singletary (+/- 4 wins) We don't want to downplay the success that Singletary had last season. The record of interim coaches is absolutely lousy, across the board. But there are these outliers, these guys who come in and actually succeed in motivating a bunch of losers. Think Goldie Hawn in Wildcats. So the fact that Singletary got 5 wins in eight games after the bye week with this team is pretty impressive. Even though none of the teams the Niners beat went to the playoffs, or even came close. Even though two of those wins came against the self-immolating Rams, and one of those was by a single point. Even though they still don't have a starting quarterback, or an offensive line to protect him. The one thing you can't say, though, is that this 49ers team was bursting with talent and just needed the right motivation to succeed. No, it's fair to say that this is still very much a rebuilding team, and credit the former linebacker for squeezing 7 wins out of this team, one that had "3-13" written all over it. So now Singletary has the chance to truly put his conservative run-first, power-football stamp on the organization, and he has done so, albeit with some curious decisions along the way: firing Mike Martz (we're okay with that) but then heavily recruiting locker room failure Scott Linehan to be his offensive coordinator? That's a head-scratcher. Then on draft day, they land superdiva Michael Crabtree in the first round, rather than rebuild the offensive line ... it works if the ballcoach can keep the youngster's head pointed downfield, and can establish him as a legitimate threat on the field. It forces defenses to ease off the run ever so much, to have to respect a true deep threat. But that's only if they can keep their mystery QB upright. Unlike the Rams, the 49ers have not cleaned house upstairs -- it is still a poisonous, back-biting front office that often lets family politics get in the way of good football decisions. They are more than happy to give Singletary -- a man with very little NFL coaching experience -- full rein over the team, because if the 49ers fail, the front office can place all the blame on him. Meanwhile, last year's uproarious finish has fans thinking delusionally about making a deep playoff run this season, following in the Cardinals' unlikely footsteps. No other coach in this division is on the hot seat like Singletary. #3: Steven Jackson (+/- 3.5 wins) Normally, I don't point to a running back and say "this is the player that wins games." The run game in the modern NFL has evolved away from the dominant single-back, now acting as more of a foil for the passing game, and doubling as the outlet for short passes. Twenty years ago, third-and-3 is a running down. Not now. The teams that win games on the ground feature two or even three backs in tandem -- the Giants, Broncos, Dolphins, Panthers, Jaguars and Titans being notable examples. But the Rams are a different case, because they simply play at a much higher level with SJ on the field. Defenses have to respect Jackson, unlike any other member of last year's Rams offense. His (healthy) presence on the field makes the play-fake more potent (if Bulger can sell it), and his ability to rip a long run and drag would-be tacklers along for the ride gives a boost to the entire team. Moreover, his unnaturally soft hands make him as potent a receiving threat among running backs as there is in the game. His one weakness has been in providing that last line of protection for Bulger, but as an outlet back, that really isn't his role. Last year, Jackson was seldom healthy or in shape, due in part to his decision to skip the preseason, while holding out for his contract extension. Now that he's got his commitment from the organization, and the organization itself has recommitted itself to winning football, he has been a dedicated participant in offseason workouts, and has spoken of taking more of a vocal leadership role in the locker room. Given how the team responds to him on the field, this should only make Jackson more potent. #4: Bill Davis (+/- 3 wins) I know, you're thinking "Who the eff is Bill Davis?" Believe me, even people who know that Bill Davis was hired to be the Cardinals' defensive coordinator this year are thinking the same thing. The Cardinals won the division last season on the strength of their offense -- they had to, since their defense gave up more points than all but four teams in the league. For this reason, many pundits predicted a quick exit in the playoffs. But the Cardinals' defense in January stiffened up dramatically, most notably in a complete shut-down of the Carolina Panthers' powerful rushing attack. The desert birds' defense got them three wins in the postseason that, by all rights, they probably shouldn't have had. With Karlos Dansby and Antonio Rogers-Cromartie, the Cardinals have a couple of upper-tier playmakers on defense. However, judging from this article at azcentral.com, it isn't clear whether Davis knows what he's going to do with them. The good news: Davis was promoted from within, from the linebackers' coach position, so he has familiarity with the weapons at his disposal. The bad news: Davis' only previous experience as a D-coordinator came in San Francisco, from 2005-06, under Mike Nolan. The 49ers gave up 840 points those two years, by far the most in the league. Yes, the Cardinals' defense wasn't good last season, but there's room for it to get worse. And that puts even more pressure on #1 on this list. no comments

Written by Will | 03 July 2009

Just a quick note: the Rams Herd now has a Twitter account. Follow us at @ramsherd. For, like, tweets and stuff. no comments

Written by Will | 01 July 2009

One of the perks of writing as part of the fanball network is the connection to Bryan Douglass, writer for the Broncos' Stable and resident optimist in the Josh McDaniels Mind Game (TM). And any good student of the Denver Broncos knows three things:

  1. How to do the John Elway helicopter spin at the goal line
  2. How to do the sideline steely glare, patented by Coach Shanahan
  3. How to evaluate an offensive line.

And it's this third piece of wisdom that is pertinent to the Rams, owners of one of the most disappointing offensive lines in team history. Without naming names, this sounds like it should have been a halfway-decent line:

LT - a 7-time pro-bowler
LG - well-regarded free agent signed from the mighty Titans
C - journeyman veteran, should be capable enough
RG - young nasty blocker who's not afraid to play dirty
RT - 2005 #1 draft pick, and heir apparent at LT

Instead, everything that could go wrong did, with the notable exception of catastrophic injury, such as those that felled Orlando Pace in '07. Bulger's passing lanes collapsed, Steven Jackson got off to a very slow start from his petulant training camp holdout, and Jim Hanifan found out all the words he's not allowed to say on radio. The line didn't develop anything close to a rhythm until the final five games of the season, and by then it was far too late.

The Offensive Line stats at Football Outsiders give us numbers to fuel our perceptions: the Rams' line rated 28th-best as a run-blocking unit, and 23rd as a pass-blocking unit, allowing sacks on 7.8% of pass plays. Additionally, one can lay blame for the Rams' ineffective Drive Stats (23.5 yards per drive, 28th in the league) directly at the line's feet as well. (However, the teams' 1.3 points-per-drive rating, second-to-worst in the league, is more the fault of our departed coaches than the line itself, which generated the red zone opportunities but didn't call the plays inside them.)

Early in the offseason, Billy Devaney took a stand in saying that he wanted to transform the Rams. [City of St Louis: "Amen!"] He wanted to return them to glory. [City of St Louis: "Amen! Bring back Kurt Warner! Bring back the Greatest Show on Turf!"] He wanted to turn them into a power running team. [City of St Louis: "A- ... wait, what? who with?"]

So the Rams poached a coach from one of the premier running teams in the league, in Steve Spagnuolo. They took their medicine while purging the roster of its aging holdovers from the past, including the now underwhelming Pace and underutilized Torry Holt. And Devaney reiterated the mantra, leading up to the draft:

“There isn’t any secret — our best player on the team is Steven Jackson,” Devaney said. “We’re going to build our offense around Steven Jackson. There isn’t any secret about that. … First and foremost, we’re going to try to run the ball and try to establish ourselves as a strong running team.” -- nfl.com, March 17

This was after making two impact free-agent signings in mammoth center Jason Brown, and reliable blocking back Mike Karney. And despite media smoke-screens about the Rams drafting Marc Sanchez, or fan outcries for drafting future superstar linebacker Aaron Curry or superdiva Michael Crabtree, it was obvious on draft day that the Rams intended to put money where Devaney's mouth is -- adding beef to the offensive line. Hence, Jason Smith became the "safe pick," even with reports of animated discussion in the war room.

Getting back to our horse-loving friend, Bryan has been working on an in-depth analysis of all 32 offensive lines for the Fanball, in a three-part subscribers-only feature. (Part 1 - Part 2 - Part 3) Without cheating the content -- and the articles are very good reads -- here is how the NFC West stacks up by Douglass' analysis:

Team 2009 Rank 2008 Rank +/-
Arizona Cardinals 17th 20th +3
St Louis Rams 21st 29th +8
San Francisco 49ers 28th 30th +2
Seattle Seahawks 31st 28th -3

While I could quibble on a couple of his choices -- for example, Bryan is reasonably bullish on the Jaguars despite their terrible showing last season -- it's hard to argue with these rankings or his rationale. It's also hard not to notice how poor this division is as a whole. But one thing is notable: no other team in the league improved as much in these rankings as the Rams. As a wrapup to this post, and a segue into further encouragement into reading the whole series, here's a snippet of Bryan's take on the Rams' offseason:

The failures of Steven Jackson pointed directly to the lack of reliable protection coming from the center position. The guards were overwhelmed due to those failures, marking the addition of Jason Brown (the best offensive lineman available in this year’s free-agent market) as the most influential move made this offseason. -- Part 1 of the series

We'll be following this up in the coming weeks with a graphic look at the offensive line stats, for both rushing and passing. Stay tuned....

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Written by Will | 24 June 2009

devaney-192x300This offseason has been all about one thing for the Saint Louis Rams: Change. And with it, we hope, comes Hope.

We finally rid ourselves of the infighting and backstabbing of yesteryear. We lost the laissez-faire ownership of Ms. Georgia Frontiere. We decapitated the three-headed monster at the top of the organization -- the intellectually corrupt Jay Zygmunt, asleep-at-the-wheel John Shaw, and the human trainwreck known as Scott Linehan.

We established a clear chain of command in the front office, a new leader. One who actively seeks good working relationships throughout the team, and has made his hires accordingly. One who has a (gasp!) positive track record with draft picks. One is more than willing to roll up his sleeves and get to work.

That man is Billy Devaney. And he is our reason for hope.

Now, with that said, we aren't building shrines to him in the corner -- yet. Let this team truly get back on its feet. Let this draft class come in and wow us. Let's get Jason "I'm not Jason Brown" Smith signed for healthy money, and have him and Jason "I'm not Jason Smith" Brown prove their worth on this revamped offensive line. Let's watch as Spagnuolo, the hot head coaching candidate we surely couldn't have hoped for in years past, molds this team to his iron will.

It won't necessarily be a pretty season, especially for all the Greatest Show fans. (I'll bet I can count on one hand the number of completed 40-yard passes we'll see this season.) But that's all right. Because just imagine the alternative. What if:

  1. Zygmunt got canned, but Shaw remained and rehired Mike Martz
  2. Devaney walked, and Martz became a Holmgren-esque coach/GM/organizational svengali
  3. Martz turned the Rams into the Raiders midwest, where "just win baby" is replaced by "shoot, we'll fix that" as the words that make fans cringe
  4. The Rams try to re-re-resurrect the Greatest Show, with a lead-footed Torry Holt, #2 pick Darrius Hey-Bey (one-upping Al Davis, naturally), one-armed Orlando Pace, and shell-shocked Marc Bulger.
  5. In order to keep all these offensive veterans around, sacrifices are made on defense, including letting Atogwe go in a draft-day trade, for which we get a future criminal misfit/clubhouse cancer/three-year washout at defensive tackle.
  6. The Rams become the first team to not only lose every game on the season, but the first team to never have the lead all season.
  7. The Rams and Raiders both decide to relocate simultaneously to Los Angeles, but all of a sudden the city of angels says "uh, no, never mind. we weren't serious about that whole football stadium thing. we were just yanking your chain, didn't you know?"
  8. Martz is fired. The new Rams head coach: Scott Linehan. Again. And we enter a Groundhog's Day spiral of insanity.

You think it couldn't happen?

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Written by Will | 22 June 2009

At the RamsHerd, we hereby proclaim:

  • That professional football is the ultimate in televised sports - 120 mini-dramas, pitting brutes against brains, speed against ferocity, all displayed with brilliant graphic analysis. Therefore, we pledge that our work will sometimes be dramatic, sometimes skillful, sometimes brutal, and sometimes graphic. (visually, that is.)

  • That the Rams suck. We all know it, and we aren't going to sugarcoat it. (Hell, we want to know why the Rams suck, so we can see about fixing that.) But at the same time, that there exists greater reason for hope now than there has been since the glory days of the Greatest Show. Therefore, we pledge to be honest at all times, and optimistic as long as it's warranted.

  • That sucking sucks. Therefore, we pledge not to suck, as a blog. As a commenting community. As Rams fans.

  • That ideas are king. The RamsHerd will be a big tent, welcoming all who bring their own ideas and opinions on the Rams, on football in general, on anything that's pertinent. Don't come here parroting some talkshow host (unless you are a talkshow host), or we will point and laugh.

  • That statistics are good things. Therefore, we welcome the use of stats in arguments. We will me using them ourselves.

  • That out of all sports, football is the poorest in true statistical measures of players' impact on the field. (Even hockey tracks "hits" ... perhaps the most integral part of their game. And yet football does not track "blocks".) Therefore, we welcome those opinions who tell the story of what happens on the field that stats don't -- or can't -- account for.
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