Early in Senior Bowl week, I developed a pretty strong man-crush on a certain road-grading offensive guard from Idaho. But I was hardly the only one. Since then Mike Iupati has been generating tons of pre-draft hype, and is expected to rise well above the #33 overall pick, where I was hoping he would fall to the Rams and give us a "Monster Draft" of beastly linemen. Now, Iupati is being compared to last year's combine star Branden Albert, and the conventional wisdom is that there's no way he falls below Pittsburgh at the #18 spot. But the latest results from our FanBall mock draft blow that out of the water.

1st: RamsHerd selects DT - Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska)

2nd: Roar of the Lions selects DT - Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)

3rd: What the Bucs selects S - Eric Berry (Tennessee)

4th: Paint it Redskins selects OT - Russell Okung (Oklahoma State)

5th: On behalf of Chiefs Chatter, Ryan Jones selects CB - Joe Haden (Florida)

6th: Flock of Seahawks selects OLB - Brandon Graham (Michigan)

7th: Gridiron Brownies select QB - Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)

8th: Raiders Radar selects ILB - Rolando McClain (Alabama)

9th: Bills Herd selects OT - Bruce Campbell (Maryland) And then comes the knife to the heart, from FanBall's preeminent offensive line guru, Bryan Douglass of the Broncos Stable:

10th: With the Bears' original pick, Broncos Stable selects OG - Mike Iupati (Idaho) And this nugget of analysis makes clear why he's willing to buck conventional wisdom and take the guard so high:

My short take is, even if the Broncos don't make this move, it's highly likely that someone following this logic will -- the Steelers at #18, or Patriots at #22 -- before the Rams get to pick #33. My only hope now is that Iupati does something at the upcoming combine to scare some of these teams away. Run a slow 40, perhaps, or mention in passing a direct bloodline relation to Brian Bosworth. As Peter King writes, lots of screwy decisions are made during combine week based on things that have little to do with actual football ability.

Rounding out the rest of the picks so far...

11th: (Jaguars) Teal Power selects Tim Tebow DE - Jason Pierre-Paul (USF)

12th: (Dolphins) Blog with a Porpoise selects WR - Dez Bryant

13th: Niners Nuggets selects RB - CJ Spiller (Clemson) ... analysis to come

14th: With the Broncos' original pick, Flock of Seahawks selects OT - Anthony Davis (Rutgers)

One thing to note -- a certain highly-touted quarterback from Oklahoma falls way out of the top 10 in this scenario. And among the teams yet to draft in the 1st round, only the Minnesota Vikings at #30 have an acknowledged need at quarterback. Where will he land?

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Here's an update on the First Annual FanBall NFL Mock Draft (click to follow the thread at the RotoJunkie forums):

1st: RamsHerd selects DT - Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska)

2nd: Roar of the Lions selects DT - Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)

3rd: What the Bucs selects S - Eric Berry (Tennessee)

4th: Paint it Redskins selects OT - Russel Okung (Oklahoma State)

What's interesting about the Tampa pick in particular is that it's the first on this board that is a real "problem" pick -- there's a lack of an impact player at an area of critical need. Yes, as Bucco40 puts it, it would be fun to watch Berry, Aqib Talib, and Tanard Jackson develop into a young semblance of a shut-down secondary, but this is a high-risk way of building a defense. The other top-tier players available at OT, DE, or QB, don't match up in terms of a high-priority need. Clearly, Tampa is hoping -- praying -- that either the Rams or Lions go off the reservation and take someone other than McCoy and Suh.

Well, what if Tampa traded up into the #1 slot and had their choice? With ten picks in this year's draft, and having a very high-value #1 pick, they are one of the few teams that could realistically afford to make a trade-up deal. And they are one of the very few who might be motivated to do so.

Here's a quick table of the NFL's thumbnail "draft value" chart, corresponding to the picks owned by the Rams and Bucs. (Draft order info from Walter Football; Draft value chart from Draft Countdown.)

Rams 2010 Draft Order Round Pick Draft Value (pts) 1 #1 3000 2 #33 580 3 #65 265 4 #97 112 5 #129 43 5 #152 30.6 6 #161 27 7 #193 14.2 7 #211 7

Bucs 2010 Draft Order Round Pick Draft Value (pts) 1 #3 2200 2 #35 550 2 #42 480 3 #67 255 4 #99 104 5 #150 31.4 6 #163 26.2 7 #195 13.4 7 #202 7.6

If you aren't familiar with the NFL Draft value chart, it was developed by Jimmy Johnson with the Cowboys as a way to quantify how many picks need to be exchanged to make a deal work. But the numbers are just guidelines. For example, in a draft such as this that is so stacked with premier talent (as many see this as possibly the last draft without a cap on rookie pay), those second round and even third round choices should spike in perceived value.

In any case, I'm going to lay this offer before Bucco40, and see what he says: Would you trade your #3 overall and your #35 straight up for our #1 overall and the chance to choose between Suh and McCoy?

This would still leave the Bucs with a decent 2nd round pick, and give the Rams 3 picks in the top 35 of a very strong draft class. Then with that 3rd pick, the Rams can either take the quarterback of their choice, or even trade down again with a QB-hungry team like Cleveland, who isn't expected to build around Brady Quinn.

If you're a Rams fan, what do you think about this? I'm posting a poll over on the RamsHerd Facebook page, so drop in and give us your votes.

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RamsHerd selects Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.

The Rams don't lack for heart, and they don't lack for grinders. If they were a hockey team, they'd be full of fourth-liners. But aside from Steven Jackson, the Rams don't have a monster talent anywhere on the field. This pick addresses this need with the biggest monster available in the draft.

Suh is a transformative talent at defensive tackle, and is being matched up with the strengths of his young head coach. Suh is a disruptive force against the run or pass who must be double-teamed, and who therefore can change the entire dynamic of the Rams' defensive line, and by proxy, the entire defense itself.

The Rams' cornerbacks were some of the lowest-rated in pass coverage in the NFL, a direct reflection of how long opposing quarterbacks were given to throw. Additionally, the Rams routinely had to bring extra rushers from linebackers, without having the horses at LB to truly put fear into QBs. The net result was fewer defenders in space, and more defenders sucked up in the line of scrimmage, and a lot of easy first downs allowed.

Under Spagnuolo, the Rams dramatically improved in tackling, and in preventing big plays. It was the little plays, the long drives, third down conversions, and red zone percentages that did them in. Plug in a disruptive force to get opposing offenses out of sync, and the big plays -- the sacks, the turnovers -- follow.

The obvious argument is "What about the offense?" And yes, the Rams desperately need a quarterback. And a top-flight wide receiver. And a road-grader on the line to replace Richie Incognito. And a tight end. And... too many needs to address them all in a single pick, or even a single draft. There's really no question of the Rams' "drafting for need" because they have so many needs.

Their most desperate need is for transformative, monstrous talent. If there was a Peyton Manning in this draft, then he would be the logical pick above Suh. But there isn't (sez me -- expect an argument here), and Suh is the biggest monster around.

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FanBall is going to be mocking the first round of the draft by polling each of the writers for each NFL blog on the network, which puts RamsHerd on the clock. Naturally, I reached out to the network of Rams fans on Twitter to see what they thought. My question: Who's your #1 right now for the Rams, assuming they don't trade down? Here are their responses:

The early returns are in. Total tally, and perspectives from Twitter scouts after the break.

I also polled a number of the NFL Scouts and Draft experts on Twitter, and got back some solid responses.

(Colt McCoy, that is.)

Looks like we have a pretty clear consensus, with 6 votes for Suh, 1 for Bradford, and 1 for Clausen. Not too surprising, and matches the direction I was leaning in naturally. Do you agree? Disagree? Hit me up in the comments. The FanBall mock draft should be happening this weekend. Also, look for a long-form examination of Jimmy Clausen, the dark horse in this debate, to be published on this site soon.

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Pure speed, combined with an ethereal ability to float just above the turf, just out of gravity's reach. In their glory days, the high-flying Rams had players who had it -- Bruce, Holt, Az Zahir Hakim, and most notably the many gears and endless guile of Marshall Faulk. The genius of the Martz offense was bolstered by, and dependent on, the sheer unpredictability of what might happen after the playmaker got the ball. Once it was the Rams' offense that made opposing defenses look old and slow, but now it's quite the reverse. As the Rams have devolved, they've lost hold of their speedier gears. Members of the old guard grumbled that Torry Holt had lost a step and Bruce was too old, while buying up deadfooted Drew Bennett and the corpse of Dante Hall. The Linehan Rams consciously tried to run a grind-it-out offense, but it was like trying to drive a dump truck with the burnt-out engine of an '83 Volvo. No power, and no speed. Spagnuolo has much the same conservative philosophy on offense, but the team has at least gotten younger and faster with players like Donnie Avery and Danny Amendola. And we saw rare glimpses of when a play came together just right, and Avery, Amendola, or Jackson suddenly had the ball out in the open and they could finally engage those high gears. Imagine a draft, an offseason, devoted to adding DANGER. Well, there's a player whose stock is rapidly rising, but who was once considered a lock to be available in the third round -- all 5'7" and 165 lbs of Ole Miss's Dexter McCluster. He runs like a drop of mercury on a cast iron skillet, quick and determined to get downhill, but never following a predictable path.

The buzz

This quick take from Matt Miller at New Era Scouting from McCluster's Senior Bowl play offers a nice synopsis of his pluses (emphasis mine): If you want to see that agility and balance, Hetfield72 over at the TurfShowTimes posted some pretty incredible video footage of McCluster in a game against super-safety Eric Berry and his Tennessee Volunteers. [youtube yp3RL2s5BV0] His balance is so good that even when he gets hit in space, he often seems to avoid direct punishment. He breezes away from arm tackles like a dollar bill in the wind (fwd to 4:40), but also has the strength and motor to absorb a hit and deflect off if the tackler hasn't wrapped up (fwd to 5:14 to see him escape Eric Berry). But that's assuming the neanderthals on defense lay a hand on him. Two eye-popping plays: a 32 yard TD run at 3:00, and a 71-yarder at 5:54 have to be seen to be believed. The Twitterverse has been blazing over McCluster's Senior Bowl showings so far, but scouts are still mixed. Because of his diminutive size and darting speed, he is earning comparisons to Darren Sproles and Leon Washington... but in his game-breaking potential, the names of DeSean Jackson, Percy Harvin, and Chris Johnson are being bandied about. However, one comparison stuck out to me: I had to look this guy up... Lionel "the little train" James had a short 5-year career with the Chargers as their proto-Sproles in the early 80s. He had a transcendent season in '85, though, getting 191 combined carries and receptions with kick return duties as well, and setting the AFC record for all-purpose yardage.

Strategic Fit

As mentioned above, McCluster is a "DANGER" pick, in that he adds unpredictability and a close-field scoring threat to the offense. Pairing him with Michael Vick and Steven Jackson would create a true triple-threat attack that could drive defenses crazy. Even a defense that is stacked against the run works best against traditional running plays -- cutbacks and play-fakes out of multiple formations would drive opposing D-coordinators crazy. Like Vick's Atlanta Falcons, a top grade receiver is more of a luxury than a necessity with this kind of offense. McCluster would not be an every down player, and thus not a threat to Steven Jackson's #1 status, or his newfound leadership on the team.

Arguments Against

Clearly, injury risk is significant. At 165 lbs, McCluster has a feather-light frame that would not seem to hold up to punishment at the NFL level. Even Sproles weighed in at 185 in the pre-draft Combine. And it's worth noting that one season after James' record-setting year, he played in only seven games. Three seasons later he was out of the league all together. Finally, McCluster's abilities in the return game might be significant, but they also overlap the excellent work that Danny Amendola has been doing. If both are key playmakers as slot receivers, the Rams would have to shift philosophies and run many more four-wide formations. Still, though, the Rams' needs for playmakers, and the setup of this draft, could make McCluster a great pick in the top of the 4th round, and even a good pick -- if riskier -- in the 3rd. no comments

It must be the start of the offseason, as Brett Favre is already talking about retiring again. But more importantly, this is Senior Bowl week, and the tubes of the interwebs are glowing white-hot with information overload as all kinds of scouts, bloggers, and collegiate cognoscenti descend on Mobile, Alabama. And after only one day of weigh-ins, measurements, and practices, I have already developed a budding player crush: Mike Iupati, a guard from Idaho. Now, crushes aren't supposed to make sense. You don't base major life decisions on a crush. And the agony of the Rams' offseason is that they have so many holes it will be that much more important to have a firm strategy guiding their selections. It is that much more important not to get distracted by silly crushes. But, it's the fourth week of January. We all have crushes at this point -- most are focused on the Rams' presumptive #1 pick, Ndamukong Suh. But plenty others are fixated on Jimmy Clausen or Gerald McCoy or just on trading the pick. I'm not here to throw stones... yet. So indulge me while I think about the possibilities of having a guy like Iupati drop to the Rams in the top of the 2nd.

The Hype

It started this morning on a live tweet by @DraftBreakdown, from the weighing-and-measuring ceremonies. (Hat tip to @Daniel_Doelling for the recommended follow.) That's a freakish, Jevon Kearse-like measurement. He's got nice size: 6'5"+, 325 lbs on the scales today. And while playing in the pass-happy WAC, he didn't allow a single sack this season. And he followed up his first impression with a nice day of practice against some high competition. Here's a nice video combining highlights with commentary and analysis: [youtube nhFMZROcNZ8]

Strategic Fit

If you were building a draft strategy on "assembling physical monsters," Iupati would fit in right alongside Suh as the Rams beefed up massively on both lines. Moreover, this move would allow the Rams to reshuffle their starting O-line accordingly:

• LT: Dump (or trade) Alex Barron. Start Jason Smith.
• LG: Start Jacob Bell. (Continuity, plus was much improved last season.)
• C: Start Jason Brown. Duh.
• RG: Start Mike Iupati.
• RT: Start Adam Goldberg, who handled himself very well at many positions, but excelled here.

The pluses of this arrangement are multiple: You have a nice alternation where developing players are bracketed by veteran players; you regain some run-blocking ferocity that the Rams lost when they released Incognito; you give Jason Smith a real chance to justify his 1st-round selection; and you still maintain useful depth in John Greco, Mark Setterstrom, and Phil Trautwein. None of these should be starting, but they have another year to develop technically into sound backups. Plus, did I mention that we get to dump Alex Barron? The same Alex Barron who is a stone's throw from dead last in ProFootballFocus' player ratings for all offensive tackles? This is a player who didn't improve one iota. A failed gamble. A loss that deserves cutting. And not exactly a guy who will be missed in the clubhouse. I'll lay a stack of money down that Incognito had more friends in the locker room than Barron.

Arguments Against

Jim Thomas, for one, does not believe the Rams will aggressively pursue help on the offensive line early in the draft. And VanRam over at the Turf Show Times is making the argument that the Rams' safest course of action given the alarming lack of free agent options in an uncapped year and the other draft needs of the team, will be to re-sign Barron. And one other argument against -- this strategy represents two high-impact picks that would not be used on skill players. The Rams need at least two offensive playmakers -- at QB and WR -- in this offseason. And another slow-burning pre-draft crush potentially at the high-second-round level is Missouri wideout Danario Alexander... no comments