Following up on yesterday's offer to Bucco40 at What The Bucs, I've received an initial parry from him. He's showing a little, shall we say, "reluctance." Surprising? Here's his response, and my attempts to sway him after the break.
Interesting you raise that point as reports today say that Bucs GM Dominik has stated his desire to move up or down in the draft. I do believe that the move from #3 to #1 overall would cost much more than just the #35 pick. Additionally, I don't know if the Bucs have the money available to sign an overall #1 pick.
I see a much more plausible situation of the Bucs having #3, they will find themselves in a situation of a team really desiring one of the quarterbacks available and will want to make a move to trade up to the Bucs' spot. This leaves the Bucs with more draft selections, something they sorely need as management has plainly stated they will not be active in free agency and have needs at just about every position.
Now, unlike real GMs, we can negotiate completely openly and publicly. In fact, if we didn't, these blog posts would be about as informative as pre-draft talks with Coach Spagnuolo. (Coach, are we any closer on a QB for the future? "Not any closer. There’s still a long ways to go here. You know this is all in layers. Free agency. Draft. And what happens afterwards. So to make any rash decisions now we wouldn’t do that.")
So here's my rebuttal:
"Firstly, a #3 and #35 would actually be a really good return on the top overall pick. I don't think the Rams would sneeze at it.
"Secondly, your concern about cost shouldn't be that much of a concern, as long as you don't pick a QB with that #1 pick. The top-echelon QBs get a big bump in their pay, compared to position players. A contract for Suh is going to be a lot closer to the $30 million guaranteed offered to Jake Long as the 2008 #1 overall, than it will be to the $42 mil guaranteed given to Matt Stafford as last year's #1. Comparatively, the cost of the #3 pick plus #35 pick in guaranteed money will be about the same as picking #1 overall. (Tyson Jackson, last year's #3, got $31 mil guaranteed.)
"The real concern is your stated belief that the Bucs are trying to get the highest return possible from this draft, as opposed to dipping into free agency. To counter the loss of a pick in my original proposal, the Rams could offer one of their surplus 5th rounders to give you that extra pick back."