"Stop, Dave, I'm afraid."

Ah, computers. What can't they do? They cook our food, regulate our air, park our luxury sedans, autotune our pop stars, manage our deep-space missions without fail... Okay, that last one not so much

Apparently, though, the computers aren't much good at pretending to give hope to us Rams fans. A new NFL prediction simulator called -- and if you like a good portmanteau you'll love this -- the "Predictalator" has strong reservations about the Rams' ability for a big turnaround this season.

Three of its unpleasant predictions:

Prediction 1: Every Rams win will be an Upset

The Predictalator has run more than 50,000 simulated 2010 seasons. Here's what it thinks of the Rams' chances for the entire season.

Prediction 2: The offense will improve, but the defense won't

In this simulated season, the Sim Rams' scoring punch jumps up nearly a touchdown per game, from averaging 10.9 points in 2009 to 17.1 in sim 2010. However, instead of showing any kind of improvement in their second year under Spagnuolo, the Sim Rams Defense regresses from 26.6 points allowed in 2009 to 29.3 in 2010.

In fact, with 471.8 points allowed, the Predictalator casts the Rams as the easiest team to score against in the league, and their 33.6 passing touchdowns allowed is by far the most. (How else could Oakland's broken offense average 31 points against us in 50,000 simulations?)

Prediction 3: The Rams will pick #2 in next year's draft

One by-product of running such a huge number of simulations is that you flatten out the random bounces of luck that sway games from week to week. My first impression, when seeing these numbers, was that the computer was predicting an 0-16 season for the Rams. Not so, though.

Despite only one game on the schedule with a 1-in-3 chance of winning, somehow the season simulator gives the Rams enough bounces of the football to come up with an average of 3.2 wins on the season. Which is better than zero... but only one team fares worse: the Cleveland Browns, with 2.9. (Somehow the Bills come out with 6.6 wins .. call it the CJ Spiller bias).

Oh, and if you're a betting man? The simulator really likes the New York Jets, currently 12/1 odds-against to win it all.

Who came up with these numbers? Not me.

The Predictalator, part of PredictionMachine.com, is the latest project by Paul Bessire, who was the key quantitative mind behind FoxSports' WhatIfSports.com. Bessire has a nose for winners ... he's correctly predicted the winner of: five of the last six Super Bowls, including last year's four-point (exactly) win by Pittsburgh; five of the last six World Series, including the Yankees' 2009 win in six and the 2006 Cardinals win in five (both to the game); five of the last six Stanley Cup champions; and five of the last six NCAA Tournament champions (as of Selection Sunday).

Sept 2, 2010 6:30 pm CST

21   27

NFL.com: Recap | Play by Play | Video

Two quarterbacks did all they could do to win their battles in the preseason's last game; Sam Bradford led a surgically precise opening drive for a touchdown, finding Billy Bajema open in the back corner of the end zone with an eye-opening throw through traffic, made on the run, to cap a perfect 6-for-6 run on a ten-play opening drive. This final tune-up was his statement to his coach, and to the league: "I'm ready to start. Give me the ball, coach." Two days later, Spagnuolo made the official announcement, but watchers across the league had their say first.

FO_DougFarrar
Sam Bradford is going to do some great things in the NFL with his ability to hit small downfield targets across his body and on the move.

PFF_Fontaine
Rams QB Sam Bradford the subject of my new article tonight. Teaser: I think he will be better than QB Matt Ryan

The accolades started flying around the net even as Keith Null was taking his snaps, trying to lock down the third-string QB job, and send the intriguing collection of skills and imperfections embodied in rookie Thaddeus Lewis down to the practice squad. Null threw a TD and a pick, and led the team to ten points in scoring. Lewis also got ten points in his time, though, and in the end the Rams decided that the highly mobile Lewis represented a higher-upside project, and Null was cut.

Null was hardly the only surprising cut from the roster, as the Rams selected their best 53 (for now) to go to battle with. More game notes and roster notes after the break:

Breaking down the 53-man roster:

Secondary (9)

Starters: Ron Bartell, Bradley Fletcher, Oshiomogho Atogwe, Craig Dahl

Bench: Justin King, Jerome Murphy, Kevin Dockery, James Butler, Darian Stewart.

Surprise cut: Quincy Butler.

Butler is a player that came to Rams camp last season and simply outhustled everyone, surprising many by winning a job with the team. As fellow CBs went down to injury, Butler continued to play relatively strongly. Pro Football Focus' new Premium Stats tell us that Butler played 416 snaps, was thrown on 25 times but only 11 of those were completed, and that he missed only one tackle over the entire season.

Did he do something wrong in Game 4? The game log says he passes completed on him twice, and batted a third pass away. He also returned a punt for modest yardage, and fair-caught another.

I think this was more of a numbers game, as the Rams decided to bring only 9 total DBs, including the very freshly-added Darian Stewart, replacing the injured Kevin Payne.

Linebackers (6)

Starters: James Laurinaitis, Larry Grant, Na'il Diggs

Bench: David Vobora, Josh Hull, Chris Chamberlain

Mild surprise: Keeping Vobora & Hull, and dropping Bobby Carpenter I say this is a mild surprise because Vobora had reportedly been on the bubble, at least according to a bunch of us idiots who were trying to read the tea leaves into his playing time. He'd been backing up Laurinaitis as MLB on the second team, then giving way to Josh Hull (who also was playing pretty well) when the reserve reserves came in. Meanwhile, Carpenter had a very anonymous camp, but managed to make two game-end pass breakups in the last two preseason games.

Honestly, if Chamberlain and Carpenter could be rolled into one person -- a hard-hitting demon on special teams who could also backpedal and play the pass -- we'd have a very nice fourth linebacker. But apparently Chamberlain's aggressiveness masks over his complete inability to fill the seams in coverage. Farewell Bobby, and a final farewell to the last tie we had to Alex Barron.

Defensive Line (10)

Starters: Chris Long, James Hall, Clifton Ryan, Fred Robbins

Bench: George Selvie, Eugene Sims, CJ Ah You, Gary Gibson, Jermelle Cudjo, Darell Scott

Surprise move: Ten keepers here? Wow.

Long, Hall and Selvie are the power trio at DE, and Cudjo has shown a nice ability to get after it on pass rushes as well. Fred Robbins has come in and played much more effectively than I originally gave him credit for. To be honest, I barely noticed Ah You this preseason, and am a bit surprised that he's made the team. Eugene Sims is also a bit of a surprise to me, but the rookie has room to grow no doubt.

Of course, there's still the specter of Leonard Little out there -- still retired, still unsure whether St Louis even wants him back. Don't know if this means anything, but the number 91 still hasn't been claimed...

Special Teams (3)

K: Josh Brown P: Donnie Jones LS: Chris Massey

Offensive Line (8)

Starters: Rodger Saffold, Jacob Bell, Jason Brown, Adam Goldberg, Jason Smith.

Bench: Hank Fraley (C/G), John Greco (G), Renardo Foster (T)

Surprise Move: Rams haven't sought out additional depth at this position (yet).

It wasn't surprising to see Roger Allen (who made a remarkable comeback from a vicious knee injury in the 2009 season finale) or Eric Young (who had two penalties in limited action in Game 4, including one on a Josh Brown field goal try) get cut. It is a disappointment, though, that the Rams lost Phil Trautwein to injury. Rather than place him on injured reserve, they reached a settlement -- meaning he can rejoin the team later in the season. That's a good thing, but our depth in the meantime is not very promising. Hank Fraley is a center only, John Greco doesn't thrill me, and Foster has been invisible.

TurfShowTimes
@RamsHerd I'm okay with Greco...but he needs to find a little extra umph this year

Still, it would definitely be worth the Rams' while to hunt through cutdowns and practice squads for O-line talent. (Pro Football Focus offers this list of Five Guys Who Were Cut, but Could Help Somewhere -- the former Chief RT Ike Ndukwe could be a nice add.) It's all a part of mission: keep Bradford (and hope) alive!

Receivers & Tight Ends (10)

Starters: Laurent Robinson, Danny Amendola, Daniel Fells, Michael Hoomanawanui (?)

Bench: Mardy Gilyard, Brandon Gibson, Keenan Burton, Dominic Curry, Billy Bajema, Daniel Fells, Fendi Onobun, Add: Mark Clayton

Surprise: Four tight ends, and Mark Clayton?

That the Rams might grab veteran insurance at WR was no surprise. Devaney was deep in the hunt for the Chargers' Vincent Jackson, until GM AJ Smith let the ball drop on his own head, missing the noon Sept 4 deadline to make a move before losing Jackson for most of the season. The Rams were also known suitors once TJ Houshmandzadeh was cut by the Seahawks, but the sure-handed Housh chose the Ravens instead. So Devaney doggedly followed the trail, sniffing out a position logjam and coming away with a bona-fide starter, a former first-round talent who is physically a near-perfect Donnie Avery clone, for a low-risk price of a sixth and seventh round pick.

Great deal, Right? Only if Clayton improves a woeful 49% catch rate... a topic I explored in depth.

Keeping Daniel Fells in the fold was a mild surprise, after he missed the all-important Game 3, and barely showed up in Game 4's stat sheet, other than on the penalty list. His stocked has definitely swooned while Hoomanawanui's has soared, and Bajema's crisp touchdown route in Game 4 was icing on a pretty strong preseason that has included several whip-smart blitz pickups. Keeping Onobun is perhaps a luxury, but Rams watchers concur -- there's no way he would make it through waivers to the practice squad.

Running Backs (4)

Starters: Steven Jackson, Mike Karney Bench Ken Darby, Keith Toston

Surprising Cut: Chris Ogbonnaya

I say surprising because the backup RB position was seemingly "Silent G"'s job to lose, coming into camp. He has a brief but successful audition in weeks 16 & 17 of last season, and has a very well-developed receiving ability coming out of the backfield. Ultimately, though, it was his lack of churn in the hole that killed him. He made plenty of plays on screen passes and dump offs, but his yards per carry were minimal, and most importantly in the game of Keep Hope (and Sam Bradford) Alive!, his blitz pickups weren't quick or authoritative enough.

Couple that with Darby's emergence from the doghouse over the last two games of the preseason, and Toston's consistently hard north-south running, and we had a sudden reversal of fortune. I believe there is a place in the right system for Og, but apparently that place isn't here.

ChrisOgbonnaya
HE has a plan for me. I am on His path. Will miss STL. Thank you St. Louis and Ram fans for your support. Thank you Texans. I'm home...

Quarterback (3)

Starter: Sam Bradford

Bench: A.J. Feeley, Thaddeus Lewis

Surprise Cut: Keith Null.

Ultimately, it came down to tools and perceived ceiling over completion percentage and a year with the playbook. I think there was pretty strong sentiment from watching Null play, both in practice and in game action, that he was on the "game manager" path. He might very well become a capable backup in the league, but offered little more than efficiency in his toolbox. Lewis, though, overcame a very bumpy start to the preseason, scattering passes all over the field and following beautiful deep completions with misfired sideline routes, to make some eye-opening plays with his head, arms and feet in the preseason's final two games.

Of course, the hope is that neither he nor Feeley is ever needed in game action. (Those clipboards don't hold themselves, you know!) In the meantime, the Rams can groom Lewis into something potentially interesting, whether as a backup or as trade bait.

For Null, though, who did all he could in the preseason's final game, this last cut is the deepest.

Welcome?

Okay, stop me if you've heard this one. The Rams' passing offense is going to target a small, lightweight burner of a receiver with so-so hands who has yet to achieve his potential.

No, not Donnie Avery, who's out for the year with a torn ACL. I'm talking about new signee Mark Clayton, a near-perfect clone of Avery's skills and physique. Standing 5'10, 180 lbs, and clocking a 4.45 40 at the 2005 combine (Avery clocked a 4.2), Clayton's biggest mark against so far in his career has been a woeful catch rate, especially working with the Ravens' first franchise QB in a generation, Joe Flacco.

The strong-armed QB heaved 74 passes at Clayton in 2009 ... and 35 of them fell harmlessly to the ground, equal to the number actually caught. (An additional 4 were picked off.) In 2008, Clayton got 92 looks, and came up with a mere 47. That's a 49% catch rate over two years, which is not very good at all. (Avery's numbers were only slightly better, it should be pointed out.)

Oh, Billy Devaney, what have you done? Have the Rams actually taken a step backwards, while trying to move forward? Maybe not. Here's a ray of hope:

You would expect a receiver with such poor catch rates to have bad hands, but that may not be the case:

Clayton had a mere 2 dropped passes in the last two years.

A deeper look into the numbers suggests that Flacco's vaunted 60+% completion rate may not be all it's cracked up to be, at least as his edge receivers are concerned. The Ravens make heavy usage of the running back in the passing game, which has turned Ray Rice into a fantasy superstar, but has also deeply padded Flacco's completion percentages. Thanks to the Pro Football Focus premium stats, we can see that Flacco's pass distribution numbers get really shaky when he bumps up the power setting on his cannon of an arm:

The areas of the field that should have been the speedy Clayton's bread and butter were statistical death valleys for his young QB. Contrast that to the preternatural accuracy that Bradford has shown on deep passes, especially the chemistry he had begun to build up with Avery, and we could have a real steal on our hands.

Sports Illustrated's NFL Preview hits the stands tomorrow, and Rams fans are not likely to be too happy when it does. Thanks to Ben Kaplan at SI, I got a sneak preview of their look at the NFC West. What does their magic 8 ball say for the Rams? Outlook not so good.

Senior NFL writer Jim Trotter provided the preview for the Rams and the entire NFC West. Trotter writes:

This philosophy -- that the running game would have to take the focus of the defense away from the passer -- was an obvious failure last season. Then, the Rams were trying to protect a fragile specimen in Marc Bulger, and they were attempting to take pressure off their young corps of wide receivers. But defenses found it easy to stack 8 and 9 in the box, force obvious passing downs and easy penalties, then pin their ears back and get after the QB. The result was a Pro Bowl year for Jackson, and a seat on the trainer's table for him and nearly everyone else.

Now the Rams find themselves with arguably the most fragile and precious commodity -- the rookie franchise quarterback -- and their workhorse a year older, and if anything a receiving corps even more dependent on its young players. And that doesn't bode well, says Trotter:

This thinking led to a prediction of a 3-13 finish for the Rams, good for a distant fourth place in a division that Peter King sees being otherwise quite close -- he has the Seahawks (?), 49ers and Cardinals separated by a single game in the standings (but none finishing above .500).

However, I think there are significant reasons that Rams fans can differ with this outlook.

For one, it was obvious that the article's main content was written before the Rams' 36-point undressing of the Patriots defense. This offensive showing was the first time the Rams' true first-string offense all played together: Bradford, Jackson, a full complement of receivers, and a healthy starting offensive line. The results were eye-opening.

The play-calling morphed significantly, taking changes -- and converting them -- down field. The running game proved much more consistent on first and second down. And then there's Jackson's healthy 5-yard-per-carry average (admittedly, in limited work).

I reached out to Jim Trotter, to verify that the piece was written before this game, and to see if this performance had changed his perceptions at all.

SI_JimTrotter
@RamsHerd yes, was written beforehand. no, it doesn't change my opinion. in fact, loss of avery makes for even tougher season.

Avery was targeted 97 times last season, tops among Rams receivers, and his pure deep speed can't be replaced on the roster. But that doesn't mean that the offense is going to be severely crippled by his absence alone. The west coast offense isn't defined by what the passing game does on the fringes of the field -- it's defined by how it dissects the middle.

For that reason, the most important receivers on the Rams' roster might be second-year man Danny Amendola and the Rams' complement of tight ends -- including Michael Hoomanawanui, profiled in Peter King's most recent MMQB.

The Rams' tight ends were targeted more than 100 times combined last season, and that was with the stone-handed veteran Randy McMichael leading the way. Arguably the Rams top four options at TE in camp this year -- including Billy Bajema, who may be on the chopping block -- present better receiving options.

Ben_Kaplan
@RamsHerd It all starts w/the QB, but I worry about that o-line. Can they keep #Bradford upright? #Rams

I won't deny that this has been a worry, even with all the dollars spent on that line. But the results from the last two games -- one sack total versus Cleveland and New England, in a full game's worth of work -- suggest that it's not a lost cause yet.

One of the maxims of Football Outsiders' analysis is that "the offensive line doesn't get enough credit in the running game; the quarterback doesn't get enough blame for taking sacks." Last year, all three Rams QBs struggled with their decision making despite having adequate time on many snaps. Conversely, Bradford has shown a preternatural ability to make a quick decision, avoiding pressure and dumping passes incomplete when necessary. His vaunted completion percentage may drop as a result, but he isn't going to stare down a single pattern and wind up flat on his back as a result.

And of course, neither the article nor this reaction piece have mentioned the team's hidden wild-card -- the very likely possibility of an improved defense. Of course, the Rams would have to give up 100 fewer points than last year to be considered "average" in that respect. But again, we saw against New England how the offense's ability to keep possessions alive gave the defense fresh legs -- the Rams' first-stringers forced the Pats' first-string offense into three-and-outs on nearly every drive.

Of course, this isn't entirely fair. There are real reasons to be cautious about predicting a high win total for the Rams. And all season long, we might be saying "if only they played like they did against the Patriots." The Rams are likely to be up and down all season, as they grow into a winning team. I just happen to think that a good bit more than three wins are not only possible, but likely.

Sam Bradford, showered with our affections.

I'm going to put an idea out there, tell me if it's right or wrong. I believe the heart of a fan base isn't caught up in wins and losses: it's wrapped up in its young players. We fall in love more easily with youth, with potential, with anything that gives us hope for the future. Especially when that youth is pretty damn good, and shows us that our affections are deserved. If that's the case, then forget about the Cardinals ... move over Blues ... St Louis is about to become a football town in a big way.

Of course, this has as much to do with the foundering St Louis Cardinals, who appear to be giving away a division that they had essentially won in spirit with a three-game thrashing of the division rival Reds. They were supposed to follow that epochal series with a month-long tour of losing teams and the lessers of the NL Central ... but have instead dissolved into a largely disinterested and confused mess, while the Reds have retaken the lead and expanded it into the largest in the NL.

While Rome is burning, Cardinals manager is fiddling with the roster card, figuring out more and more inventive ways to keep the young and future star of the outfield, Colby Rasmus, out of the lineup.

Sports fans and veteran followers of the team alike are howling in dismay, filling up my Twitter feed.

miklasz
I have no idea what's going on between La Russa and Rasmus, but this is very strange, and it must end.

hixxinsoulard
I am going on record. 2010 Rasmus>2010 LaRussa. Same next year and beyond too.

cbensinger
The rasmus stuff with his dad - r the #stlcards so petty that they worry more about appearances than his performance. #gottobekiddingme

This kind of rift is not only demoralizing for the fans, it hits the team as well. Whether you're a highly-paid super star or a grunt, you want to hit the field with the best talent available. And you want that talent to stay on the field, giving you the best chance to win. But several notable Cards losses can be traced back to a young player mouldering on the bench.

I have to admit I wasn't paying close attention, beyond noticing that Rasmus appeared to be stinking up my fantasy team, then not playing for a good long time. So I missed it when this Joe Strauss article outlined the years-long rift between sensitive poppa's-boy player and old-school/new-school organization, a perfect storm of ego, talent and "baseball the way it oughta be" that centers around La Russa and Rasmus.

Most shocking, to me, in this article? This quote from the young player in question:

I think you have to take some of the blame off La Russa, in this light. (Some, not all.) If Rasmus thinks he can just keep his mouth shut and let his play speak for him, he doesn't know much about how to earn his place on a veteran team, with a very veteran manager intent on making a playoff push each and every year. Much less how to go about learning how to make the transition from the minors to the bigs.

So in a case of a fan base being split between a knucklehead player and a hard-hearted manager (who might be on his way out of town anyway).... let's choose Option C: the new face(s) of a franchise who is (are) doing it right.

Obviously, the biggest case in point is the Rams' Sam Bradford. Read this extended profile by Bryan Burwell, and think of him as the anti-Rasmus.

He's speaking up, and earning respect at the same time.

The team knows how important he is, and has a plan in place for him...

And that plan includes reaching out to the community.

And the talent is firmly in place.

But the hearts of Rams fans are reaching out to more than just Bradford. Danny Amendola is rising star who is about to get his chance as a starting WR. His counterpart, Mardy Gilyard, is an unbelievably engaging personality who lights up the field and the sidelines. James Laurinaitis and Chris Long are putting their stamp on the defense, while Jerome Murphy looks to put his stamp on opposing ball carriers.

Even those who get geeked up about the offensive line (@bpdouglass, I'm looking at you) have a young player to fall in love with -- Rodger Saffold -- and an intriguing young guy who could become a dominant force -- Jason Smith.

Of course, the baseball division/wildcard race is far from over. And we know that those die-hard Cardinal fans won't be able to turn away from the drama until it's over. But instead of sinking into your annual hibernation, check out these Rams. They could very easily have a winning record after their first five games. And October will end with the emotional retirement of Isaac Bruce's #80 ... a dutiful nod of the head towards the glory of the Greatest Show, while this new generation of Rams looks to start their own legacy. You'll want to be there.

Michael Hoomanawanui splits three Patriots defenders for a touchdown.

While all of us are basking in our brand new professional football team, you have to wonder -- what do the mighty Patriots think about being so thoroughly upstaged by the upstart Rams? Not that the game counted, of course, but Belichick had the riding crop out and was pushing his starters most of the night to show him something. This was going to be a 'teaching moment' for the Pats, with the Rams playing the unlikely role of the schoolyard bullies.

I asked one of the new members of Pro Football Focus' growing legion of writers, die-hard Patriots fan Akshay Adnan (@PFF_Akshay), for his take on what he saw from the Rams' opponents. Here's how he responded:

This analysis jibes with Belichick's own post-game thoughts:

Meanwhile, the Rams are gaining nothing but confidence from Thursday night's game.

Preseason Week 3:
Rams (1-1) at Patriots (2-0)

August 26, 2010 6:30 pm CST

36   35

NFL.com: Recap | Play by Play | Video

Video highlights of a Rams win headline at NFL.com... when was the last time that happened?

Forget for a moment the giddy pleasure of embarrassing the Patriots in their own house, in front of their fans. (But oh, it's so much fun to remember the shocked silence of their fans, or the look on Tom Brady's face -- like the princess who tried sleeping on a rock-hard pea.) Never mind the fact that the game doesn't count. (Bill Belichick certainly didn't use this game to "evaluate the roster," keeping Brady and the first team offense in the game until the 4th quarter, racking up face-saving points against the Rams' 2nd and 3rd stringers on defense)

And keep thoughts of Donnie Avery, who may be out for the season, in your heart while we consider what tonight's performance means for the Rams.

This was nothing less than an arrival, for Sam Bradford, for St Louis, and for Rams fans everywhere.

For more than a year, the Rams have been completely absent from the world of pro football, where anything can happen on 'any given Sunday.' No, when the Rams showed up to play, you knew what would happen -- they would play hard, but they would make a critical mistake (or lots of them), they would lack the talent to make up for those mistakes, and they would suffer the loss in the end.

Not any more. The Rams may or may not be fully ready to contend this season -- conventional wisdom still says that they're an impact draft class away from having the blue-chip talent in place -- but at the very least they showed that they can surprise teams. They can win games that perhaps they shouldn't. And as the Patriots just found out, they can even make their opponents flat-out look bad.

This outcome wasn't luck. This was a beat-down of an opponent that either didn't compete, or couldn't compete, until it was too late. So often, that described the Rams. No longer.

Some game notes and tweets:

• My favorite drive on the night ended in a punt. The game was tied 7-all, and the Rams had just forced the first of many three-and-outs from the Patriots. Bill Belichick kicked away on fourth-and-one from midfield (very un-Sith-like, Lord Vader), figuring that after all, these were the Rams, and pretty soon he'd get the ball back with better field position, or maybe just grab an easy turnover for a quick score. The punter dropped a perfect dagger of a kick inside the five yard line, backing up Bradford against his own goal, with no Steven Jackson to lean on.

  In a surprise, Ken Darby came out as the Rams' primary backup runner, and he exploited the tiniest of crevices for positive gains, setting up a makable -- but still treacherous, because after all, these were the Rams -- third and five. Bradford calmly surveyed the keyed-up Pats defense from the shotgun set, and darted the ball almost as soon as it was snapped to a sharp-cutting Danny Amendola for a surgical 12-yard gain and an easy first down.

  A brilliant one-handed grab by Michael Hoomanawanui (more on him in a minute) gave the Rams another first down on the very next play, and just like that the Rams had erased the field position advantage that Belichick thought he had sewn up. The drive could have kept going, but for a disgraceful drop by Laurent Robinson, who uncharacteristically let a bullet of a pass get through his hands and into his body, bouncing harmlessly away. But nevertheless, a Rams punt backed the Patriots up and set up yet another excellent defensive series, and then another Rams scoring drive.




• Pat Shurmur, long reviled in this town, should get a lot of credit. The Rams' offensive coordinator called his first "complete" game, dialing up a really effective package of passes and a strong enough mixture of runs to keep the Patriots defense off balance all night long. And Spagnuolo gets credit for green-lighting the aggressive play-calls into the rookie's huddle.

  Most importantly, they didn't water down the playbook for the personnel on the field. They said to their own ultra-young roster, "This is the offense. You need to execute." And with Bradford (age 22) setting such a high bar, he might have earned trust for all the young players from the coaching staff. 4th-stringer Thaddeus Lewis (age 22) came in for the second half, and chewed up more than nine minutes of clock running a perfect "Spagball" offense before finding Brandon Gibson (age 23) for a brilliant 20-yard catch-and-run into the end zone. And after the Rams and Patriots traded scoring drives, Keith Null (the bearded veteran, about to turn 25) was brought in to get the game-winning points, leading a perfect two-minute-drill down the field.



• Chris Long and the defensive front four were the reason the Rams were able to hold down the Patriots. The Rams were consistently able to generate pressure on Brady by only rushing four linemen, which allowed them to clog the field with defenders against New England's quick-pass-based attack. The Rams did occasionally bring more, but those blitzes were never telegraphed, and were made more effective by the basic rush package. Long's best play of the night resulted in a sack -- for Fred Robbins, who out-worked Pats guard Stephen Neal to chase down a flustered Brady for a ten-yard loss.

SI_PeterKing
Whoever this Michael Hoomanawanui is for the Rams, he's made the team tonight in Foxboro. Good hands, route-runner.

• Uh oh! Hoomanawanui might have done more than make the team, he might be pushing for TE1 duties. By my count, the rookie from Illinois was already one of the top three TEs on the roster, and was making the block-first Billy Bajema expendable. But what he did tonight was nothing short of revelatory. In his first touchdown catch of the night, the Rams lined him up as an H-back, the third tight end on the field (with Bajema and Darcy Johnson). Bajema released immediately up the field, drawing coverage away, and Hoomanawanui rumbled around the outside -- trusting Darby to pick up the unblocked defensive end -- and plucked Bradford's pass out of the air as easily as grabbing a pie off a windowsill before diving into the end zone.

  His next catch -- the one-handed grab I mentioned above -- was made in traffic and caused jaws to drop. The throw itself took serious moxie on Bradford's part. He had to throw behind the receiver, because coverage was too tight to lead him. Bradford has been putting balls in mailboxes all summer, but this was some serious John Elway-level gun-slinging. And Hoomanawanui... I still don't know how he came up with the ball. He's fending off the linebacker with his outside arm, twisting backwards while lunging forward, and just holds up his hand and stops the ball like he was Neo, stopping bullets.

  

  His next catch was his second TD on the night, and like the first, he simply flowed into a hole in the coverage and tumbled into the end zone. (Who ever heard of a Rams receiver wide open in the red zone?)

  The thing is, though, every tight end the Rams put on the field made plays, from Billy Bajema's textbook-perfect block setting up Bradford's game-opening deep ball to Avery, to Fendi Onobun's 35-yard catch and run for a 4th-quarter touchdown that wasn't. Every tight end, that is, except Daniel Fells, the nominal starter who sat this contest out. The Rams offense didn't miss a beat without him, which is great news for us, but perhaps troubling news for Fells in the last year of his contract.




• The loss of Donnie Avery will be felt. Unfortunately, it's hard to get too excited about this ascendant performance, because the Rams lost an emerging weapon in Avery just before the half. The Rams had a tenuous three-point lead and faced a third-and-eight from deep in their own territory. (This means an automatic draw play and a punt, right coach?) Avery got a step on his man deep, and Bradford decided to go for it, launching the ball and then taking a hard shot from the oncoming pass rush.

  The ball was ever so slightly underthrown, though, and as Avery turned his head to find it, he twisted and slowed imperceptably to try and elevate over the clueless defensive back. But his foot "froze" on the brand new "FieldTurf DuraSpine Pro" surface, and instead of launching his body upwards, his leg wobbled, his knee crumpled, and Avery crashed to the turf. It may not look as sickening on replay as a Joe Theisman-type injury, but as someone who has seen the Rams suffer all too many turf-related injuries, I can say that it made my stomach turn.

  Ominously, the Rams will also be playing on a new FieldTurf surface at the Edward Jones Dome, their "Gameday Grass 3D" variety. As the turf gets worn in, it should become less dangerous for those delicate twisting ligaments and tendons. Last season's "NextTurf" surface spelled doom for Keenan Burton, Laurent Robinson, Jacob Bell, Bradley Fletcher and too many more.




• The Rams are fortunate to have the depth at WR that they do. Burton had a very strong fourth quarter, creating a first down from a second-and-twenty on two physical catches. Brandon Gibson came back from injury to make a couple of very nice plays, including a brilliantly timed stop-and-go pattern that shook off the Patriots first-string corner like a belt-less crash test dummy. And Mardy Gilyard got some quality looks at split end instead of working from the slot. None possesses the natural deep-ball ability that Avery has, but Gibson and Gilyard in particular could step into that role.

  Talent evaluators have been saying all along that the Rams lack a true number one receiver. That is, until Avery was injured; now they're saying that we've lost our only true #1. But what other see as a problem is actually a potential strength on this roster -- a large corps of fungible assets that can step in and contribute.

  Watching on the sidelines last night, and waiting for his turn in the offense, was the Rams' newest addition to this corps: Danario Alexander.

If we learned nothing else tonight, Rams fans, it's this: there are very real reasons for hope in 2010. The future of this franchise isn't some far-off thing that's several draft picks or free agents away. The future is here.

Tom Brady Tom Brady Tom Brady Tom Brady Tom Brady Tom Brady Tom Brady Giselle is freaking hot! Tom Brady Tom Brady Tom Brady Tom Brady Tom Brady Tom Brady 19-0? Tom Brady Tom Brady Tom Brady Tom Brady Tom Brady BILL BELICHICK IS THE SPAWN OF SATAN!

Sorry, when I start thinking about the Patriots my brain snaps into an ugly feedback loop. Instead of writing "Tom Brady" 800 more times while grinding my teeth to dust, I reached out across the Fanball network to Chris Kelley of PatsChowder to talk some actual football. Our full Q&A is after the break.

What kinds of things do you want to see from the Pats in this game, in preparation for the regular season?

CK: The first thing I want to see tonight is how Quinn Ojinnaka (who was acquired from the Falcons earlier this week) is going to fit on the line. Word out of camp right now is that he is fitting in well, so it will be great to see him in a game situation. I also am interested to see how many snaps Wes Welker is going to take tonight. Pretty encouraged after him getting in there for four last week. On the defensive side of the ball, I want to see Derrick Burgess in a game situation since he finally showed at camp and was declared a OLB starter immediately.

Note: I imagine the whole fantasy world will be tuned in to see whether Welker still "has it" -- especially the guys who drafted Julian Edelman over him. Will Carroll (@injuryexpert) recently published a piece on SI.com talking about the crop of injury risks at WR, and Welker's "miraculous" recovery.

Is anyone likely to emerge from the super-committee at RB? Conversely, do you see anyone getting cut from this group?

CK: Haha, it seems like this question is asked on an annual basis. Barring injury, it doesn't appear there's a real "break-away" candidate. Fred Taylor has looked solid this preseason, but I don't see the Pats running him more than half the time. This seems to be Lawrence Maroney's make or break season. Sammy Morris is valuable in short yardage, and Kevin Faulk is probably one of the best pass-catching 3rd down guys in the league. And the guy I didn't mention (Benjarvus Green-Ellis) could have the most potential out of any of them. I don't foresee them cutting any of those guys at this point, but we'll see how the rest of the preseason shakes out.

Note: I don't see how it's possible that the Patriots could keep five running backs on their 53-man roster, but the Belichick world is mysterious that way. I think they might actually have a full collegiate 85-man team, but any time someone from the league starts counting, Belichick peeks out of the hoodie and uses some Jedi mind tricks. Benjarvus Green-Ellis is definitely the droid I'm looking for.

How is the offensive line / protection shaping up in front of Brady?

CK: I think with the addition of Ojinnaka at guard, the Patriots have gotten more depth at a position they are clearly missing a few pieces at this season. The tackles will be excellent (Matt Light and Sebastian Vollmer will have great years) and Dan Koppen is a reliable center.

The potential issues are on the interior. With Nick Kaczur out due to back surgery and possibly not returning this season and the Logan Mankins holdout, guard is sort of shallow. Stephen Neal hasn't really wowed anyone so far, but is serviceable and Dan Connelly has limited starts on the line, which brings me back to #1 - how will Ojiinaka fit in?

Note: It can't hurt your protection when there is an entry in the NFL rules book named "the Tom Brady rule." And this year, they've moved the umpire in to the offensive backfield -- no doubt to chip any oncoming blitzers away from their Golden Child. Wait, did I just go there?

It seems like the Pats defense has had a lot of turnover. Who should we be watching?

CK: The Pats defense has had a bit of turnover, but I think it truly could be for the best this season. Unfortunately, we start out down a DE, losing Ty Warren for the season, but there is plenty of upside on the rest of the defensive side of the ball.

At linebacker, keep an eye on former Florida teammates Brandon Spikes and Jermaine Cunningham. Spikes has really performed well this preseason, and it appears the starting ILB job beside Jerod Mayo is his for the taking. Cunningham should get some rotation on OLB, but hasn't quite progressed as quickly as Spikes has.

In the secondary, Pat Chung is really coming into his own. He constantly draws the Rodney Harrison comparison, but I'm not ready to crown him yet. And finally, I'll be looking for 2010 first-rounder Devin McCourty at CB and special teams. A lot of people chuckled at Belichick when he passed on Kyle Wilson and went with McCourty, but I think he may have been on to something. The kid is going to be something special.

Note: Brandon Spikes was somebody I was really high on a year ago, and thinking he would become a top-15 pick this year. But his measurables at the combine really seemed to drive his stock down, as many doubted whether or not he had the build to play the position in the NFL. Of course, you could have said the same thing about former Ram London Fletcher, who has been a beast his entire pro career.

One of the really interesting notes buried at the bottom of yesterday's Dave Razzano scouting report was the tendency for GMs who tend to swing and miss on top picks -- he mentioned the Raiders and 49ers in particular, but the Zygmunt-era Rams count too -- to fall into the trap of looking at measurables above actual playing ability. Clearly, Bill Belichick does not fall into that category. He has shown an phenomenal ability to build a roster out of role players that maximizes their ability while disguising their weaknesses. Am I jealous? Yes, yes I am.

Scouting report: Sam Bradford's pre-game laser-beam gaze turns falling rain into steam.

Former NFL scout Dave Razzano has spent a lot of time in the NFC West, 22 years in all. He scouted for the 49ers in their heyday, for the Cardinals as of late, and spent the crucial 1996-2006 years working for the Rams during their rise and fall. In fact, Razzano got in the news cycles a couple months ago for airing a heated dispute in the Rams' war room regarding QB Alex Smith's draft grade.

Never shy with his opinion, Razzano has now provided a thorough scouting report on the Rams' fortunes for 2010, via the Playmaker Mobile blog.

On Sam Bradford's ability to make an immediate impact on the team's fortunes:

Granted, the Rams were playing three guys out of position in the interior of their line against a well-schooled pass rush. But I think the critique is valid. Bell and Brown are veteran players that were brought in to essentially maintain their established talent level, and they've both struggled a bit to do that. Saffold looks like the real deal, but Smith is the big question mark. Can he establish himself this season? If so, Bradford's time in the pocket gets a lot more comfortable, and the receivers have that much more time to get open.

An interesting counterpoint to this is Razzano's take on Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan. Ryan pretty much set the mold for landing on a rebuilding team with little more than moxie, maturity and accuracy in his arsenal, and somehow led the Falcons to an eleven-win season... a staggering seven-win improvement from the season before.

It's hard to pin any expectation on Bradford, except to be "better" than what the Rams had at quarterback over the last few years. I don't think that's setting the bar too high at all....

On the Rams' recent defensive draft picks:

Long still has to shake this perception, and this year will be critical to doing that. He looks to be in tremendous football shape, and isn't shying away from anyone or anything in camp this season. The fact that he consistently gives second and third effort, to my mind, raises his ceiling a little higher. A good portion of Razzano's critique, from a scouting perspective, is balled up with where Long was drafted. This can't be a concern for the Rams any more. Now they simply have to help him unleash his top talent potential.

For an interesting counterpoint, read what Razzano has to say about the opposite type of DE, new Chicago Bear Julius Peppers:

I think Long can get to double-digit sacks this year as well, and if so, the Rams have a much better building block player in him than the Bears do in Peppers. If not, though, we may have to admit that Long's ceiling is more limited that I'd like to believe.

On other players to watch from the Rams' 2010 draft class

Hoomanawanui has been a pleasant surprise to me. I wasn't very high on the pick on draft day, but he's shown pillow-soft hands in the passing game, and rock-hard everything else in blocking assignments. I still like Fendi Onobun a lot out of this group, but can't argue that he belongs in the category of "guys with potential."

Razzano's full take on the Rams: St Louis Rams 2010-2011 Scouting Report

Razzano's take on the Seattle Seahawks: "I have them ranked as the second-worst team in the NFL."

Razzano's take on the Arizona Cardinals: "Even if Leinart struggles, they still have enough talent to win the division."

Razzano's take on the 49ers: "Swinging and missing on their high picks.".

Some quick hits and tidbits from the short week leading up to Thursday's preseason game against the mighty Patriots:

Welcome to the big time, Danario

Does Billy Devaney read RamsHerd? Or are we reading him? Just a fortnight ago we strongly suggested that the Rams should get off their duffs and sign Danario Alexander; yesterday they went and did just that, giving the rookie from Mizzou a #84 jersey and working him into their second rotation of receivers.

Last year's 5th round pick, Brooks Foster, was released to make room for Alexander. Sadly, the kid didn't have much of a shot in St Louis, being lost for the season on the Lindenwood scrimmage field last year, then barely cracking the rotation this summer.

At least one writer thinks that the timing of this move signals desperation on the part of the Rams, and I have to say he makes a good point.

Previously reigning "tall guy" Jordan Kent should be put on immediate watch, but the player that might be most on alert is Keenan Burton.

Burton had an amazing first two weeks of camp, catching everything in sight, but failed to translate that into significant catches in live preseason action. Most worryingly, most of his snaps in Game 2 came with the third-string offense. Burton has been targeted 10 times in the two games, most among Rams receivers, which to my mind means that the coaching staff is giving him a good long look to make a pretty important roster decision on him. #14 has come up with only 3 catches for 22 yards and 0 TDs, and may need to show something special in this matchup versus New England.

Another Rams receiver was raising eyebrows during the Browns game, but not so much for his hands.

RamsOnDemand
@RamsHerd ... btw does Curry look HUGE to you? o_O

FtblSickness
@RamsHerd Who is this Dominique Curry character? Making plays.... Hits like a DB on special teams

RamsOnDemand
@RamsHerd saw him take Joe Haden out of a play too. Could be a helluva run blocker in certain packages. May not get a roster spot tho.

Dominic Curry had a monster game that could have been capped off with a touchdown catch in the rain, but he let the pass from Null get into his body on the goal line and bounce harmlessly away. Unfortunately, drops have plagued Curry throughout camp, muffing two back-to-back passes from Bradford during the Lindenwood scrimmage.

Speaking of Bradford, he's going to start Thursday night's game, but Spagnuolo says he's still not "The Starter." The coach says that Bradford has to show more to earn that title rather than let a minor thumb injury to AJ Feeley drop the title in his lap, and I agree. However, perhaps the coach ought to show Bradford more of the playbook during games. A lot of watchers, including Browns fans, were mystified by the Rams' playcalling, in which Bradford didn't even attempt a pass of 10 yards or more.

This week's preseason game is normally the last extended work for the #1s on the team, as Game 4 is typically used to evaluate the back end of the roster. It is also traditionally the only preseason game that is "game-planned" for the opponent. The Patriots present a very interesting challenge, with their philosophy of letting their starters play late in the preseason, and with their ability to show a lot of different defensive looks. If Bradford doesn't do well, especially while Steven Jackson is in the lineup, then I think we have to admit that Feeley might be the best option in Week 1 after all.

However, it may not get that far. The offensive line responded to Spagnuolo's challenge after P-Week 1. This should be considered as another challenge. Let's hope Bradford makes the most of it.

Finally, speaking of the offensive line, those Rams fans who miss Richie Incognito and his nasty-boy attitude might want to remember the name "Tyler Thomas." The redshirt freshman from Oregon State just ran afoul of the law in a stunt that can only be described as Incognito-esque.