Week 14 Preview – St. Louis Rams vs. Buffalo Bills

 

Looking only at the Bills statistics for 2012, this game would appear to set up very well for a Rams’ victory. Over the full season, the Bills rank 24^th in total defense allowing 368.5 yards a game, 13^th in passing defense allowing 229.8 yards per game and 30^th against the run allowing 139.2 yards per game (4.9 yard average). If I believed these stats were legitimate, I would recommend a run focused offense. Unfortunately, the season long statistics are misleading.

In the last five games, these are the Bills’ defensive statistics:

 

	Comp/Att	Passing Yards	Rushing Att.	Rushing Yards	Avg. per rush
12/2/2012	18/41	208	18	50	2.8
11/25/2012	20/37	240	29	87	3.0
11/15/2012	14/28	141	24	60	2.5
11/11/2012	23/38	237	29	117	4.0
11/4/2012	19/27	268	32	118	3.7

 

Clearly, the Bills have improved on defense. Therefore, we will look at the real stats in this preview. The Rams are facing a team that allows 219 passing yards a game, with a 55% completion percentage, and 86.4 rushing yards a game. With the real stats in mind, here is my strategy for a Rams victory.

 

1.         CONTROL THE RUN

While I started with defensive statistics for the Bills, the most important factor in this game is the Rams’ run defense. The Bills are 4^th in the league in rushing yards gaining 147.9 per game. They are averaging an exemplary 5.2 yards per rush. They also rarely turn the ball over while running with only 5 fumbles this year. On the other hand, the Bills rank 26^th in the league for passing offense gaining only 198.5 yards a game. They frequently turn the ball over when passing. They have 13 interceptions with only 374 attempts. This is the 4^th worst interception percentage in the league.

If the Rams can control the run, the Bills will be forced to try to pass, which is the weakest part of their game. If Rams don’t control the run, they will lose the game, barring an extraordinary offensive performance.

2.         PASS TO OPEN UP THE RUN

As a preliminary statement, I am assuming that Danny Amendola will start and that Givens will replace Gibson as the other starter. If Danny A. is not playing, we do not have the option of following the strategy I am setting forth below.

I have to expect the Bills will come into the game with a strategy of focusing on Steven Jackson specifically and stopping the run generally. Furthermore, the weather at this time of year in Buffalo is never advantageous to a passing attack. Therefore, no one will expect the Rams to come out firing. While the Rams are not a passing Juggernaut, I do not believe their passing can be considered a weakness. 

I would like to see the Rams come out with a two to one pass to run ratio focusing on the intermediate range. I am not that impressed with the Bills linebackers, which is partially playing a role in this strategy. I am not going to suggest a Tom Brady passing attack for the whole game. Instead, I recommend that the Rams try to get a 10 to 14 point lead in the first three to four possessions.  At some point, the Bills will adjust and focus on the pass. At that point, we let Jackson and Richardson take over.

I am not a huge fan of going away from your strength based entirely on an element of surprise. I want to make clear; my recommendation is not based entirely on an element of surprise. It is partially based on a belief that the Rams have an advantage with Danny Amendola, Chris Givens, Lance Kendricks and all three of the RBs in the short to intermediate range with Bradford throwing the ball. Moreover, it is my belief that an initial pass happy attack will open up the run as the linebackers and safeties have to focus on their pass defense. Once it is opened up, we can begin to pound Jackson and Richardson and hopefully maintain the early lead.

3.         TURNOVERS

The initial offensive game plan requires short drops and quick throws. Bradford cannot afford an interception when the defense begins to anticipate the quick throw. I am not suggesting he has to go the entire game without an interception. I am suggesting that a game plan that is primarily designed to take a quick lead, requires the Rams to take advantage of each possession.  Also, once we get the Bills to begin throwing the ball, we have to take advantage of it. The primary reason to get them to throw the ball is to try to get Fitzpatrick into his interception mode.

4.         BRADFORD UNDER PRESSURE

If the Rams ignore my initial game plan, then Sam will have the same role he had in the 49ers game. He will not throw often, but when he does he will need to complete the pass and move the chains. A heavy run game plan against a defense designed to stop the run, will lead to long third downs from time to time. The Bills can get pressure on the quarterback. Sam will need to deal with that pressure by either getting rid of the ball quickly or running when the protection falls apart.

If the Rams follow my game plan, there will be running opportunities for Sam early because the linebackers will be busy covering our receivers. Also, the quick throws will cause the lineman to try to get quick pressure, which should open up some running lanes. In the quick throw portion of the game plan, I would like to see Sam take off when the opportunity arises.

Also, my game plan eventually switches into a running focused offense. We will then have the same situation as set forth in the first paragraph of this section. Once we get into run mode, Sam Bradford will need to take advantage of his opportunities. As the safeties move up to stop the run, a deep throw to Givens should cause hesitation in that approach.

5.         PENALTIES

It is time for the Rams to grow up. Double digit penalities, especially on the road, is not acceptable. I want 8 or less penalties. Execution matters.