The St Louis Rams and the Tampa Bay Bucs were similar teams on paper, with the Bucs holding one huge advantage - a deadly efficiency when they get into the red zone. The Bucs were the league's fourth-best team in touchdown scoring, converting on 66% of their red zone possessions. 

Here's how the Bucs fared in their four red zone trips, thanks to the Rams defense: field goal, field goal, turnover on downs, turnover on downs. 

The Rams scored 21 points off Josh Freeman turnovers - including a brilliant pick-six runback by Janoris Jenkins that put the Rams on the scoreboard and gave them a lead they wouldn't surrender.

Despite allowing 370+ yards passing on the day, the defense picked off Josh Freeman four times on Sunday, and forced three more turnovers on downs. (Even the Rams offense got into the act, forcing a fumble of their own on a Bucs first-quarter fumble recovery that could have been a momentum-changer.) It was a classic bend-but-don't-break performance by Jeff Fisher's defense. But unlike the Detroit game, the Rams offense held up its end of the bargain. 

Meanwhile, for the Bucs, this was the second four-INT game in a row for Josh Freeman. Time and again, the Bucs offensive coordinator put the ball in his quarterback's hands with a mandate to make a play. Time and again, the Rams defense made one instead. 

Well, that didn’t go as planned.  The Rams were at home in a game with playoff significance, and they had one job: stop Adrian Peterson. Everything looked OK until 12:34 left in the second quarter. To be exact, at 12:31 AP made a cut that literally took three potential tacklers completely out of the play. No one could stop him from there and he had an 82-yard-touchdown. 

In case, you need a reminder, in the preceding drive, the Rams scored with a touchdown pass to … Brian Quick. Everyone that has been dying to see positives from Quick was stoked.  Minnesota took the kickoff back to the 18 yard line. With 12:34 left, in the 2^nd quarter, Minnesota had a 1^st down, and the rams called an overload blitz on Quinn’s side with a zone drop of the defensive tackle on Long’s side. What? Against Adrian Peterson, you drop one of four defensive lineman into coverage on 1^st and 10? Yes, that is exactly what the Rams called.

Notwithstanding the deranged play call, the run should not have gone for 82 yards. It was set up as draw play between the right tackle and right guard. Quinn set the edge and two blitzers came through the hole between the Quinn and Brockers. The guard blocked both with just a push and pick. Both blitzers were then completely out of the play because they were behind the running back and behind several offensive lineman.

Quinn set the end, so he was not out of it yet. However, he began to jog down field. If he was running at full speed, he could have met Adrian Peterson as he was making the fateful cut at 12:31. 

Michael Brockers took on his blocker well, but his right arm got trapped in on his body and the guard literally held on to the arm to keep Brockers connected to him as they both moved towards the running back. By the time Brockers dislodged himself, he was out of the play. Long set the edge as he was supposed to do, and then got blocked. He was out of the play from that second forward.

Now we get to the other defensive lineman. Kendall Langford, took on his blocker for a split second, but then dropped into pass coverage. It just so happens that Langford was in the hole where the run was designed to go. With Langford dropped and Long setting the edge, the full back ran through a gaping hole with no job other than blocking a linebacker. He took on James Laurinaitis at full speed. JL held his ground and bounced off the block a little. He saw Peterson start to go to the right and began to move in that direction. He was done from the point forward. Peterson made the cut to the left and JL was getting blocked to the right.

Langford had a chance to set another edge downfield. Instead, he took a very strange angle and then was blocked in the back right at James Laurinaitis. As this was going on, Peterson was making his cut to the left. Langford was now out of the play.

Now we get to my least favorite Ram, Craig Dahl.  He not only fell for the jab step to the right by Peterson, he continued to run forward and to the right.  It took him about five steps to stop.  While trying Dahl was trying to stop, Peterson made the jab step, cut to the left and was already by Dahl as he began to notice that Peterson was not going to the right.  Due to a faulty braking system, Dahl was now out of the play. 

The only guy a with a real chance at this point was Janoris Jenkins.  He was moving towards the play and had a blocker near him. If he would have continued running downfield, it is possible that he could have caught Peterson. However, as Peterson was running downfield with no one in front of him, Jenkins decided to do a back spin to set the edge. By the time he completed the move, Peterson was five yards past him. What you saw from there was Robert Quinn (now at full speed) chasing Peterson downfield. 

In the end, Quinn should have been at full speed the whole time.  If he was, I believe he would have been in a great position to stop the cutback. Dahl, as usual, took a bad angle and took himself out of the play. Langford did nothing right, and Jenkins made a very strange decision. 

James Laurinaitis maybe could have stopped it by throwing his blocker to one side, but if he threw the blocker out of the way in either direction, I suspect AP would have gone the other way. 

With that great little memory, here is the review of the preview:

PREVIEW 1.     Control All Day All Game

REVIEW - Epic Fail

PREVIEW 2.     Pearson’s Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient (Turnovers)

We don’t need to win the turnover battle; we just need to stay even. Turnover differential has been proven to be a key factor in wins and losses in the NFL. If you don’t believe me try to read through all of this: http://www.scribd.com/doc/57023757/The-Correlation-Between-Turnover-Differential-and-Winning-in-the-National-Football-League .  To give you a preview of this fascinating reading: “The Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficient of .646 obtained from the two-tailed p-test, suggest a strong positive correlation among turnover differential and winning percentage.”

REVIEW – Epic Fail.  Rams 2 turnovers – Minnesota 0

PREVIEW 3 - Pass/Run Ratio

The Vikings are fairly even on defense. They are 18^th against the pass and 14^th against the rush. For one of the first times this year, I do not care about the pass/run ratio. Everything will be dependent on the game circumstances. Some people may suggest that you have to run to keep Peterson off the field. I disagree. A short passing game also keeps the clock moving. The primary way to keep Peterson off the field is to keep moving the chains. Whatever is working to do that, I support it.

REVIEW – It didn’t matter.

PREVIEW 4 –PENALTIES

The Rams were amazing last week regarding penalties. They are at home this week, and they should be able to keep the penalties down. A key way to sustain drives is to avoid stupid penalties. Execution matters.

REVIEW – The Rams had 8 for 47, but the penalties themselves were horrible. How can a center get and/or cause 2 false start penalties.

A quick look around the league scoreboard revealed the nature of December football, of what happens when the playoffs loom large and the pressure ratchets up. Those teams that can handle the pressure have a huge advantage over those that cannot. And the result is, more often than not, a blowout. One team throws a big punch, and the other crumples to the mat. 

The Rams blew themselves out early on Sunday, cracking under the strain of carrying unexpected playoff expectations. A mistake-laden second quarter gifted the Vikings with 20 free points and turned a tightly competitive 7-7 home finale into a heart-guttering exhibition of "same old Rams" for the home crowd. That the Rams came back in the second half to give brief hope for an impossible comeback was good. It shows the competitive spirit of this team, the fight in this team that Jeff Fisher has instilled. But it wasn't enough to make up for these glaring mistakes: 

TD Vikings (14-7): Adrian Peterson takes a wicked inside cut on exactly the kind of running play that Paul warned us about in his preview, and races untouched for an 82-yard score. Coach Fisher said after the game that the Rams were in the wrong defense. 

FG Vikings (17-7): Scott Wells, who had a very uneven game at center, mishandles the snap on third down to Bradford deep in his own end, and the Vikings recover. This was in the dry, spotless surface of the climate-controlled Dome, with his quarterback directly under center. It's hard to imagine a player that cut his teeth on Green Bay's icy tundra botching a snap this badly, but he did. 

TD Vikings (24-7): Again on third down, Bradford and Wells spot what looks like an overload blitz on Barry Richardson's side of the field, which should have had sirens sounding. They call it out and try a blitz-beater to the other side of the field. However, Leslie Frazier pulled two of his rushers back, sending defensive end Everson Griffen looping all the way around the back of the formation, and directly in the path of Bradford's quick pass. It was a hell of a defensive call and play, but a huge costly mistake for our team nonetheless. 

All of that happened in less than five minutes of game time. And it was followed by yet another missed long field goal try from Greg Zuerlein -- new nickname: "Scott Norwood" -- that set up a 29-yard "drive" for another set of cheap points to close out the first half. 

I said before the game that it felt like the Rams were lining up against the 2010 version of themselves - facing a team with a superstar running back, a strong and inventive defense, and a quarterback on a very short leash from his coaches. They also faced off against the wall that the 2010 team ran into time and again. That team had multiple chances to get over the hump, to get over .500 and into a legitimate playoff conversation. They failed each time.

We think this 2012 team is much improved over that 2010 one in many ways. But in this test of December mettle in a win-or-go-home scenario between two teams with faint playoff hopes, the end result was disappointingly familiar.

It also underscores a hard truth about where we stand, one year into the FIsher-Snead rebuild. This is not a playoff-worthy team yet, playoff scenarios and "in the hunt" status be damned. The Rams have a strong genetic blueprint that is capable of putting up a fight for four quarters, and their second-half comeback attested to that. But they have more growing up to do, and more necessary sharpening of tools and minds to do, before they can take the next step. 

Here we are in week 15 and the Rams are still in the playoff hunt. I can honestly say that this was not on my radar screen at the beginning of the season. Under the coach favorite “take one game at a time” theory, this is an important one game. Currently there are nine teams with a better record than the Rams and only six teams make the playoffs. Minnesota is one of those teams. Therefore, a win today, moves us up one in the playoff position and that is all we can control.

Without looking ahead in any fashion, it should be noted that two of the teams ahead of the Rams in the playoff race play each other (Washington and Dallas). Barring a tie, that would be another team the Rams will pass by winning out. Finally, the last game against the season is against Seattle, who currently has a two game lead on the Rams in the playoff race. If they lose one game against San Francisco or the Bills, then there is a possibility of a “Win & UR In” situation in the last game of the season. 

So what do the Rams need to do to win? This is one of the easier previews to write:

1.         Control All Day All Game

We have played Frank Gore and Jackson/Spiller in the last two weeks and still controlled the run. However, Adrian Peterson is on another level this year. Moreover, there is no other team in the NFL that needs their running back as much as Minnesota. How important is Adrian Peterson? Minnesota is 3^rd in the NFL in rushing yards per game, and Adrian Peterson has almost all of the rushing yards. The only two teams above Minnesota in total rushing yards are the two teams that have a rushing game and a rushing quarterback.

When Minnesota isn’t rushing they are not doing much. They are last in the NFL in passing offense. They average 172.6 yards a game passing, which is only 16 yards a game above their rushing average.

Thus, the plan is simple. If we keep AP to 100 yards or less, the Vikings should end up with less than 300 total yards.  This should lead to a victory as long as we don’t blow any of the following factors.

As a final note, I will ask all fans to watch our tackles. The Vikings have run the same play for a large gain in each of the last three games. It looks like a sweep, but Peterson cuts back through a hole that is generally created inside the tackle. The best way to stop that play is to have the end keep contain and have the tackles get off the block to stop Peterson as he is cutting back through the hole.

2.         Pearson’s Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient (Turnovers)

We don’t need to win the turnover battle; we just need to stay even. Turnover differential has been proven to be a key factor in wins and losses in the NFL. If you don’t believe me try to read through all of this: http://www.scribd.com/doc/57023757/The-Correlation-Between-Turnover-Differential-and-Winning-in-the-National-Football-League .  To give you a preview of this fascinating reading: “The Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficient of .646 obtained from the two-tailed p-test, suggest a strong positive correlation among turnover differential and winning percentage.”

3.         Pass/Run Ratio

The Vikings are fairly even on defense. They are 18^th against the pass and 14^th against the rush. For one of the first times this year, I do not care about the pass/run ratio. Everything will be dependent on the game circumstances. Some people may suggest that you have to run to keep Peterson off the field. I disagree. A short passing game also keeps the clock moving. The primary way to keep Peterson off the field is to keep moving the chains. Whatever is working to do that, I support it.

4.         PENALTIES

The Rams were amazing last week regarding penalties. They are at home this week, and they should be able to keep the penalties down. A key way to sustain drives is to avoid stupid penalties. Execution matters.

My God, these Rams are looking more and more like Jeff Fisher’s teams from Tennessee every day. No doubt about it, the Rams victory over Buffalo was ugly. Many of Fisher’s victories over time have been ugly. However, I am so happy to see an ugly victory instead of an ugly loss.

Some of you may be expecting another exaltation of Bradford. If I thought he had great game after a 222 yard no touchdown performance against the 49ers, then I should be jumping for joy after the 200+ yard 1 touchdown game against Buffalo.  Sorry to disappoint, but Sam had his issues in this game. I give him tremendous credit for the last drive, but his overall performance was acceptable, not great.

There was one player who was great. I watched the game twice now and Michael Brockers looks better each time. He is occupying blockers, pushing them deep, and even getting pressure on the quarterback. Anyone who still complains about the RGIII trade is blind. We got Bradford instead of Suh, and then we got a Suh replica. Brockers is becoming a beast inside. Plus, we still have two more first round picks courtesy of the trade. 

Let’s take a look at the preview and see if anything I thought would matter actually mattered.

This week we look at Brandon Gibson’s game-winning touchdown late in the 4^th Quarter this past week against the Bills.  The Rams come out in 10 personnel in a trips look to the field.  X-Receiver Brian Quick has a hitch route (1).  Y-receiver, Austin Pettis is on the dig route (4) with Z-receiver Brandon Gibson running a post behind it (8).  In the slot, Chris Givens has a corner.  Bradford is in the gun with Jackson to his left.  Jackson is going to have a sneak release running an drag across the field.  It is the same route he ran in last week’s Anatomy of A Play on the Lance Kendricks’s catch on the two-point conversion. 

To the single-receiver side in the boundary is Brandon Gibson.  Gibson is going to run a post route.  Gibson’s release, depth, and catching ability are keys to this play.  Bradford takes a three step drop with a hitch, steps up into the pocket and delivers a great ball into a tight window.  He does it with great poise as defensive tackle Kyle Williams is in his face. 

Defensively, the Bills look to be in a Cover 2 shell as the Rams break the huddle.  However, the trips look for the Rams forces the Bills to change their coverage.  Strong Safety George Wilson must man-up the slot receiver, Chris Givens.  As the video illustrates, Free Safety Jarius Byrd communicates this change to one side of the field, but the question is, did he communicate to the other side and Ron Brooks who is all alone on Brandon Gibson?

Let's break it down. 

One Two of these years are not like the others. 

The Rams (ranked 17th) have reached their highest point in the ESPN Power Rankings since 2010, and are knocking on the door of the upper bracket for only the second time in the last six years. Now, the worth of these kinds of rankings is next to none when it comes to matching up on the football field, but they provide an easy shorthand to describe our team's competitiveness. And it's hard to argue with the consensus opinion of our mostly-bedraggled teams of 2007-11. 

This is a case where I agree with the consensus. Are the Rams trending up? Absolutely. Are they ready to challenge the elites? Not on your life. 

In the short term, the Rams continue their regular-season playoff prep course with a matchup against the Minnesota Vikings (ranked 16th, while we're talking about it). Only one of these two teams' slim playoff hopes will remain alive after this matchup, making this the equivalent of a "win or go home" game in Week 15. Remaining opponents Tampa Bay (18th) and Seattle (10th) may also have playoff chances on the line. This is a worthy December challenge for a growing team. 

In the long term, this chart displays an ugly trend that Jeff Fisher and Les Snead are charged with correcting. In 2006, 2010 and now 2012, the Rams fought and clawed their way to a respectable season. In 2007 and 2011 (the purple and brown lines on the above chart), that respectability quickly fell out the window. The Rams, as a franchise, are not one that's known for sustaining success. That is the culture that must be changed here. 

To their credit, I believe Fisher and his staff are going about it the right way, going extremely young on the roster to breed out the memories of past failures, and going veteran on the coaching staff to coach good habits into the new stock. They also have a good shot at retaining their key players and coaching personnel, giving them a chance to sustain and build on their success so far.