Commissioner Roger Goodell and new Carolina quarterback Cam Newton. Photo from Zimbio.com. Not pictured: boos.

The first 32 picks are always unpredictable -- not an empty phrase, these picks are literally impossible to predict from top to bottom. (ESPN reportedly offered a cool $30 mil to anyone who could do it ... but you'd have a better chance of being next year's #1 pick.) That's what makes this one of the great weekends in all of sport.

Here's part one of our draft-day blow-by-blow, mining our epic live-blog and extended conversations from last night.

1. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

Not a huge surprise, though the contract negotiations between Newton and Jerry Richardson would make for epic television. Tim asks: "I wonder what Jimmy Clausen is doing right now?" As it turns out, he was tweeting his congratulations. Possibly while on a boat with T-Pain and a mermaid.

2. Denver Broncos: Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M

Okay, this was surprising. Granted, Schefter had been reporting that this was 90% of a done deal, but smart money had been on Marcell Dareus here. From Pro Football Focus: "So the Miller to Denver love today wasn't a smokescreen. Now the onus is on Denver to use him correctly."

3. Buffalo Bills: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama

Says Tim: "All of my Bills friends were dying for Dareus. Congrats to them. Dareus is so versatile, perfect fit." Adds Derek: "And Ryan Fitzpatrick keeps his job for one more year." Kind of a shame Newton didn't fall to the Bills, really. That could have been special. Do they go Kaepernick in the 2nd?

4. Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia

Debatable. NFP's Wes Bunting loved it: "Best pick in the draft so far goes to the #Bengals...they get the best player in the draft at four in AJ Green & fill a huge need..." Granted, AJ Green is virtually bust-proof, but that will be put to the test with the roster disaster brewing in Cincinnati. Next year's #1 overall pick?

5. Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

Tim calls this pick "The Bradford Effect." Clearly a "best player available" pick in my mind, but a luxury for Arizona considering the staggering depth of needs on the O-line, defensive middle, and (ahem) at quarterback. No way they address even half their needs in this draft. Should have traded out. Meanwhile, Blaine Gabbert makes his first appearance on the ESPN SadCam....

6. Atlanta Falcons (via CLE): Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

Jaws dropped. A stunning deal. Clearly, Atlanta wasn't content to wait for Ryan Broyles or Justin Blackmon in 2012, and needed an elite complement to Roddy White... but wow, what a package of picks they gave up. This was the deal Arizona needed to make, honestly. What a win for Cleveland. And a part of me is now a Falcons fan...

7. San Francisco 49ers: Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri

This didn't help our floor-bruised jaws any. Clearly he's a special talent, but I hadn't seen Aldon mocked higher than #11 to the Texans. Fits a pattern, though, says Brennan: "Two picks that could effect Bradford's development. Peterson to the Cardinals and Smith to the 49ers." Aldon becomes the first non-SEC player to be picked, and Prince Amukamara is officially "falling" right now. Meanwhile, Blaine Gabbert tries to grimace out a smile on the ESPN SadCam. It looks more like he smells a fart.

8. Tennessee Titans: Jake Locker, QB, Washington

Blaine Gabbert has just been leapfrogged. So has Al Davis, as Titans owner Bud Adams is now officially The Crazy Old Guy of the NFL Draft. Says Brennan: "Locker could easily be the second coming of Kyle Boller." I think a Vince Young comparison is not out of the question, either -- both are far better runners than throwers, though at least VY had some college success to bank on.

The first round of the draft is a wrap, and UNC's Robert Quinn is the newest St. Louis Ram.  There were definitely some surprises, reaches, and drops in the first round. With that said, I'd like to take a look at some key prospects the Rams could possibly target with their second round pick, that would provide value while filling a need as well.  

DE - Da'Quan Bowers
Yes, I know we took a defensive end in the first round, but we all know Spags loves his pass rushers, and Bowers is officially in full free-fall.  Not even a month ago, several mock drafts had him going as high as number one overall, but concerns over health in his knee have him tumbling.    Could the Rams double-dip at DE?  I doubt it, but it would be an intriguing pick, despite his possible injury status. Think of it like this; let's say Bowers = Julius Peppers, but injury cuts his career down to five years.  Would you not spend a second round pick on 5 years of Julius Peppers?

DT - Stephen Paea
Paea could step in and immediately contribute at the defensive tackle position for the Rams.  Gary Gibson was OK last year, and Fred Robbins is getting long in the tooth, so some depth is needed at this position.  Paea offers great explosion and solid strength.  He's a little short for what you would like out of a one-gap or three-technique defensive tackle, but makes up for that with a relentless motor.  Spags would enjoy having the flexibility that Paea and Quinn would bring to the defensive line.

RB - Mikel Leshoure
As everyone knows, the Rams need a running back.  There should be plenty opportunities for the Rams to get one at some point in this draft, but my choice would be Leshoure, whom I believe could end up being the best running back in the draft five years down the road.  Many think we need strictly a change of pace back.
 I slightly disagree. If you were to read the reports about him, he'd actually remind you a lot of Steven Jackson in not only size, but running style.   What Leshoure would allow the Rams to do is relieve Jackson of some of his early down carries, allowing him to play more on third-down/passing downs.  Leshoure, like Jackson, brings a good combo of power and size. He's a good interior runner who is hard to tackle, and always falls forward.  He could provide relief to Jackson, and also be the back of the future.

CB - Brandon Harris
Harris was a borderline first round prospect, so he would be a solid pick if he lasted to the Rams in the second round.  He lacks the size that Spags looks for in his cornerbacks, but I wonder if his talent exceeds that in Spags eyes.  Harris has shown the ability to be a solid to shutdown cover corner while at The U.  He has excellent burst, and also has the speed to recover.  He is also a willing tackler.  I wonder if the Rams like Aaron Williams of Texas better because of his size, but to me, Harris is the better cornerback prospect.  

OLB - Martez Wilson
Outside linebacker is also a noted need for the Rams.  Wilson would be able to step right in at either OLB position, and provide some speed to the linebacking corps (4.45 -40).  He is fluid in the hips, which should make him sufficient in coverage, but his speed also helps him get to the quarterback on blitzes.  He's also a solid tackler and a good run defender.  If drafted, I would put him at the weakside position.  He'd be able to roam the field with Laurinaitis and be a tackling machine, while also collecting a few sacks a year.  

If all five of these prospects were on the board when the Rams come on the clock, my pick would be between Brandon Harris and Mikel Leshoure.  I would lean towards Harris because the draft appears to be deeper at RB than CB.  

 

The Rams had to be jumping for joy every time a quarterback's name was called -- four times in the first 12 picks -- in the opening hour of the 2011 draft. Because every time we heard names like Locker and Ponder and Gabbert, it meant that a top-tier defensive talent was going to fall. And with both Robert Quinn and Nick Fairley available and only one team ahead of the Rams, it made their decision all too easy.

Brian Stull (@StullySTL)
Rams received calls to move up an down, but chose to stay pat as Quinn and others on their board still available.

In Quinn, the Rams receive a top-five player as ranked on New Era Scouting's big board, among many others. Among other honors, they tab Quinn as the "best potential" among this year's defensive ends, the "best in five years," and the "first Pro Bowler." With Spagnuolo and Ken Flajole pointing the way, that could happen sooner than anyone expected. Analysis after the break:

Derek Pease (SportsByWeeze)
Just making sure I've got this rt... according to reports #Rams might go DT, DE, RB, TE, G or WR in the 1st. Glad we cleared that up #luvrumors

The first ever RamsHerd liveblog (powered by CoverItLive) opens up at 6:30 CST, half an hour before the clock starts on the Carolina Panthers. Join Derek, Maurice, Tim, Brennan and myself as we chat up the big event in Radio City. Also, all the news you can handle on the Royal Wedding!

At the stroke of seven tonight, the Carolina Panthers will be on the clock and all the insanity of the last few months, all the speculation, all the debate will fall silent for a brief anticipatory moment.

Until they make their pick, that is. Then, all hell will break loose.

The glorious chaos of the NFL Draft -- the real one, not all these mocks that we've been banging our heads on -- begins tonight and we will be front row center (in front of the flat-screen tv) for it. The draft now stretches for three days, but analyzing and exploring the new shape of the team will fill up the next several months, for coaches and writers alike.

Thirteen very good players will come off the board before the Rams' draft slot comes up, and there are guaranteed to be some Tyson Alualu-sized surprises in there. There might also be some Ryan Leaf-sized busts. You just never know. Obviously the draft is stacked at defensive line, and there are enticing wildcards at quarterback. And there are three known elites that could conceivably fill a need for any team in the league: AJ Green, Julio Jones, and Patrick Peterson. The top of this draft can unfold in myriad ways. With so much uncertainty, the RamsHerd braintrust gathered and made some draft predictions. Here's what we came up with for round one:

Who Will the Rams Select in the First Round of the 2011 NFL Draft?

Remember when Judge Nelson ended the lockout on Monday? Yeah, well that was just another step in the game of legal football, so we thought. Her decision tonight though, on the eve of the draft, changes the game.

The league insisted that they would not reopen for business until they had taken their shot at getting a legal stay of the Judge's decision -- basically arguing that it made no sense to play by her rules alone when they have their own case in another court, before the National Labor Review Board. The Judge heard the NFL's request, and shot it down in a terse 20-page statement, essentially pooh-poohing any chance of their second case succeeding. She then fired a shot across the bow:

Daniel Kaplan, Sports Business Journal (@dkaplanSBJ)
If NFL does not start free agency tomorrow, players counsel Quinn e-mailed me: "They could face contempt for being in blatant violation of a Court Order."

Of course, the owners are the ones with the lockout war chest. They may find it cheaper in the long run to pay the penalties of being in contempt now than to re-open their doors to the players without resettling payroll to an acceptable level. (But not if one of those penalties blooms into an antitrust suit -- the owners still have to be very careful.) And let's not forget, they still have a legal card or two up their sleeve:

Albert Breer, NFL.com (@albertbreer)
NFL statement: "We are filing tonight a request with the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals for a stay of the preliminary injunction pending our appeal. We believe there are strong legal and practical reasons that support a stay and that the Court of Appeals should have an opportunity to address the important legal issues that will be presented. We have asked the Court of Appeals to consider on an expedited basis both our request for a stay and the appeal itself. We are evaluating the District Court's decision and will advise our clubs in the morning on how to proceed."

But the possibilities abound... could free agency start tomorrow? Could players be traded on draft day? Does the Rams' draft board change? Let's explore:

George C. Scott has agreed to play the role of @PFF_Tyson in the film adaptation of #MockThree.

With the selection of Graig Cooper as Mr. Irrelevant, MockThree is officially in the books and the Rams war room breaks into exhausted cheers.

With a 16-hour draft clock and the vagaries of interacting with 31 other war rooms, there has been little sleep in our "smoke-filled-room" over the past six days. (In fact, that "smoky" smell emanates from a combination of the beef jerky, barbecue chips and Kaldi's coffee that has been fueling our draft efforts.)

Now that the dust has settled, here's a recap of our draft efforts: 

Round 1: Rams pick Illinois DT Corey Liuget

The draft got off to a bit of a stumble out of the gate, as our dream scenarios fell one by one and we were left with the fourth option on our board, Corey Liuget. But while we expressed some not-so-private frustration at the time, Liuget was on our board for a reason -- he's very quick off the snap, very polished with his technique, and able to get to the quarterback. He'll be able to come in and contribute in Spagnuolo's defense from day one.

Ironically, each of the War Room members had our own favorites for this spot, some more loudly than others, but Liuget was the one guy we could all agree on as a compromise pick. He's sort of the "BLT and fries" pick on the menu -- guaranteed to be good, but you probably won't brag about it.

Round 2: Rams pick Illinois RB Mikel Leshoure

Tim led the way with this pick, jumping on the running back option far sooner than some of us might have. As perhaps the most educated guy in the room, Tim laid out his arguments for Leshoure like bricks of an impenetrable wall, blocking any objections with his logical masonry.

Perhaps the biggest benefit of going running back at this juncture was that it broke up a three-way battle royale over which of the group of second-tier receivers to cast our fate with. Van, Tyson and I each had our projected heroes (I liked Titus Young) and goats (and not Leonard Hankerson), not a one aligning with the other -- a common symptom of this group of misfit talents.

Round 3: Rams select Wisconsin G John Moffitt

At this point, I put my foot down. Literally. As the rest of the room cast out notions and ideas, I removed my mud-encrusted boot and two-day-old sock, stepped up onto my chair and planted my gnarled, unpedicured, cheese-smelling, hairy-toed, 37-year-old foot onto the folding table that housed our big board. When you ask an oldster into the room as a "senior advisor," you have to be prepared for the worst.

"If we're going to re-commit to the run, we have to rebuild the interior," I growled, as shock waves of putridity assaulted my brothers in arms. "Now." There was no further argument, and the road-grading Moffitt was an obvious choice.

Round 4: Rams select Boise State S Jeron Johnson

This pick was all Van. Perhaps tired of the mounting waves of concern about player safety, or just looking to inject a little danger into the defense, he advocated for a man who might literally kill someone on the field with his intense tackling ability.

With a growing Viking bloodlust in the room as he retold tales of Johnson's heroic exploits, the call to draft Jeron built to a roar until the pick was announced. I believe things were set on fire, though my memories of that night are a little hazy.

Round 5: Rams draft SDSU WR Vincent Brown

Though still just an apple-cheeked babe, the head of our War Room showed a cool head and sharp eye that were far in advance of his years. This was keenly on display in this fifth round, as the rest of us nursed our hangovers and our grudges and watched in amazement as Tyson plucked a fantastic value pick in Vincent Brown.

Brown is a player that was once in consideration back in the group of 2nd-round receivers, but whose star began to fade after a sub-par Combine 40 time, and the fickle pre-draft buzz moved on to flashy projects like Kentucky's Randall Cobb. But Brown is a guy that steady-handed scouts love, and Tim wasted no time in mining some valuable points to back up the pick: "In the last two seasons, Brown has averaged 17.3 yards a catch and 19.6 yards a catch. He’s posted a long of 30 yards or more in 14 of his last 19 games, 8 of which were over 50 yards."

This is one of the picks that really excites us.

Round 7: Rams select Appalachian State LB D.J. Smith

With no immediate prospect of signing any undrafted free agents, there was no such thing as a throw-away pick in the 7th round. And so we actively sought out useful players who could come in and fill needs, even after more than 200 top talents had exited the board.

We hope we've found a gem here in D.J. Smith, who former Rams scout Dave Razzano compares to small-school star linebacker London Fletcher. If anyone would know, it would be Razzano, who was with the Rams when Fletcher walked on and went on to start all 16 games of his rookie season.

Round 7: Rams select TCU DT Cory Grant

Tyson went back to an old favorite here, re-mining one of his late-round gems from Mock One, and providing Spagnuolo with a stout new weapon for the interior of his defensive line.

While Liuget profiles to be an eventual three-down replacement for the 34-year-old Fred Robbins, the beefier Grant should rotate in nicely in the opposite DT slot on first and second downs, filling the space vacated by Cliff Ryan.

We have to salute @EmPuLsE for running three of the most entertaining and insightful mock drafts of this silly pre-draft season, and for having the audacity to invite more than 100 twitterers to form up in to 32 war rooms for this epic session. Now, we put our mocks away and get ready for the real thing...