Not that you need anyone to tell you that the NFC West playoff picture is a mess ... but you may be surprised to know that each of the 6-8 Rams, the 6-8 Seahawks, and the 5-9 49ers have a chance to win out and get in. Because of the way the scheduling gods laid out these final two weeks, and because of the multiple tiebreaker advantages that each team holds over the other, there are five distinct possible finishes to the playoff race -- three of which end up with a 7-9 playoff team.

(Click to see the full-size chart.)

If St Louis Wins Out...

The Rams finish 8-8 and alone in first place, beating San Francisco and Seattle, and ensuring that neither can finish with better than a 7-9 season. Also, Mike Singletary is probably fired, and Matt Hasselbeck is probably looking for work.

If Seattle Wins Out...

The Seahawks finish 8-8 and alone in first place, ensuring that neither the Rams nor San Francisco can finish with better than a 7-9 season. Also, Mike Singletary is probably fired, and Pat Shurmur may be looking for work.

If San Francisco Wins Out...

The 49ers finish with a 7-9 season, and hold tiebreakers over the Rams (two head-to-head victories) and Seattle (ditto), if all three teams finish at 7-9. However, the Niners need a Rams win over Seattle in Week 17 to ensure this scenario. Also, Matt Hasselbeck is probably looking for work, but Pat Shurmur just might have saved his job.

If the Rams beat San Francisco but lose to Seattle...

The Rams would lose their head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over Seattle, and Seattle will be desperately hoping for a miracle win by Arizona. If they get it, the Seahawks would advance to the playoffs based on the fourth level of NFL tiebreakers: "strength of victory." And if that's the case, then it will be Lovie Smith and Mike Martz who are to blame. Essentially, because Seattle beat the Bears, and the Bears inexplicably do not suck, the teams the Seahawks have beaten have a better overall record than the teams the Rams would have beaten. 

Correction: As Andrew points out in the comments, Seattle would win based on a 4-2 record in the division, while with a loss to Seattle, the Rams would fall to 3-3.  

If the Rams lose this week...

They can still make the playoffs if they beat Seattle in Week 17, but have to hope for a miracle win by Arizona. In this scenario, the Rams could be alone with seven wins in the NFC West, or beat Seattle based on a head-to-head tiebreaker.

It has now been three weeks since Sam Bradford has thrown a touchdown pass, possibly the longest drought of his football playing days. The Rams have lost two of those three games, both against playoff-ready teams, preventing them from taking the next step forward into becoming a postseason contender themselves. While we can't pin those losses entirely on Sam Bradford, one thing is clear -- opposing defenses have changed their tactics, and clearly believe that they can pin a loss on the Rams by ratcheting up pressure on young #8. 

Bradford's drought came after a miraculous 6-game stretch in which he threw 11 touchdowns against only 1 interception; this stretch was capped by a "breakout performance" in Denver: his first 300-yard game, and his first 3-touchdown game. While the resulting pyrrhic burning of Denver's coach, Josh McDaniels, stole headlines, the league's defensive coordinators took more notice of Bradford's official debut as a star quarterback.

Most notably, Sean Payton's Saints departed from their usual gameplan, specifically to prevent Bradford from getting comfortable.  

How has pressure played into this slump? Check out this graphic charting the opposition's onslaught on the pocket.

(Note: "hurries" are not captured as part of the NFL.com game book, and have to be manually charted, which the fine fellows at PFF do so well. No doubt, when they finish their analysis, the KC number will be high.)

With two must-win games remaining, the Rams offensive line will have to step up its protection, and their offensive pace must quicken to keep the opposing pass rush on its heels. Especially as both remaning opponents, the 49ers and Seahawks, have been a step ahead of the game in terms of putting the heat on Bradford.

Game 14: Chiefs (8-5) at Rams (6-7)

December 19. 2010

27 13

NFL.com: Recap | Play by Play | Video

The Rams were full of the giving spirit on the last Sunday before Christmas. They gave the Chiefs hope by not converting either of their opening scoring drives for touchdowns, then gave them life by going into a full-scale offensive meltdown throughout an abysmal second quarter. As the defense broke down, the Rams gave away the lead, and eventually just wrapped up the win with a nice gold bow and simply gave the game away.

tlc27
If only, if only. If is a big little word guys, main point is that we are a better football team than that. #rams

Yes, but to borrow a phrase, "if Ifs and Buts were patience and guts, the Rams could have given us all a merry Christmas."

Todd Haley has to hope he gets Coach Spagnuolo as his "secret Santa" every year.

Despite getting an early present from the San Diego Chargers, who mauled the 49ers 34-7 and has coach Singletary contemplating yet another quarterback change, our boys in blue could not take advantage. A win here -- and a win was certainly there to be had, had we played our "A" game -- would have given the Rams full control of their destiny. Now, we badly need some holiday charity from the Seahawks, and to win our last two games.

Rams observers have to question how prepared this team was to win this game -- not only in game-planning, which was atrocious, but in execution. Everything appeared to be off this week. The offensive tangle of poor effort, poor positioning, poor coaching, and poor coordination presents a gordian knot, making it nearly impossible to tease out just one thread.

WR_83
@RamsHerd At the risk of being totally honest, this looks like a game from last year.

When the tide came in for KC, it came in a flood.

The afternoon started out with great confidence, as the Rams posted a quick 6-0 lead with strong play in all three phases. The pre-game sit-or-play drama surrounding Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel seemed irrelevant, as Sam Bradford completed 6 of his first 7 passes, Steven Jackson was rolling, and Josh Brown was connecting on field goal tries.

KCChiefsBlog
It won't matter how Cassel looks if the defense plays like this all day. #chiefs

After that, though? The bottom fell out of the Rams' offensive game plan. The next three offensive drives totaled 1 yard as Sam Bradford ran plays out of the Keith Null playbook: targeting nothing more than five yards down field, spending more time dancing or dodging yellow flags than in diagnosing defenses and running through progressions. It's difficult to credit the Chiefs for doing anything particularly special on defense, though it should be mentioned that their young secondary led by Brandon Flowers, Brandon Carr, and Eric Berry, did a nice job in coverage. However, with the Rams Excel spreadsheet filter set to "dump off," It was a pretty simple task to simply keep everything in front and make tackles for minimal gains. 

After a dismal first quarter, Matt Cassel began to make plays, helped by a wall of protection, an unusually timid defensive game plan, and the blind eye of Referee Ron Winter's crew. The ugly blotches of red among the blue-shirted Rams fans at the Dome came to life as the Chiefs rolled up two long touchdown drives, taking a 14-6 lead.

Meanwhile, Thomas Jones did much of the damage on the ground, as his power running ground away at the Rams' defense. In a classic one-two punch, Jones softened gaps for fleet-footed counterpart Jamaal Charles, who broke the Rams' backs with an 80-yard run in the fourth quarter, just two plays after the Rams finally scored to get within a touchdown.

Yes, the score may not look it, but the Rams were one possession away with under 5 minutes to play in this game. And yet, as a final score, 27-13 doesn't feel like a large enough gap. This was a game the Rams blew themselves out of, raising the hackles of any fan who dared consider us playoff-worthy. 

One team will have to win the NFC West. NFL rules dictate it.

By that logic alone, the Rams are still in the running, as all four NFC West teams lost this weekend by a combined score of 114-50. I think we would all appreciate it, though, if the Rams actually played up to the potential they showed just as recently as two weeks ago. If they could, we might be ready to actually celebrate a division title, instead of possibly having to apologize for one.

Coach Spags has tunnel vision... one game at a time, kids.

We are midway through December, the smell of fresh cut trees is in the air, and somehow we're still talking about the Rams' very real possibility of winning the division. Can I get a hallelujah? 

With three games left on the schedule, there is only one sure way of taking home an NFC West title, and that's to win out. It would require our first 3-game winning streak since the final three games of the 2006 season, a furious rush that closed our last non-losing season at 8-8. Granted, though, those three games came against three flawed teams (the Raiders, Redskins and Vikings) whose combined records were 13-25.

Then again, it's been years since you could honestly say that there were teams that the Rams were supposed to beat.

One thing you can say about the remaining slate of games -- two division rivals and one in-state one, each chasing a division crown: none of these teams will roll over. Another thing you can say: each of these games is eminently winnable, if the Rams bring their "A" game. Let's begin our preview of the rest of the season with this week's matchup against the Chiefs.

Week 15: Home vs Kansas City Chiefs

The Rams appear positioned to catch a big break in this game, if Matt Cassel is ruled out for the second consecutive week (as is expected), following emergency appendectomy surgery last week. While Cassel is not a great quarterback, the dropoff between him and Brodie Croyle is as steep as the one between Peyton Manning and Jim Sorgi (or whoever his backup is these days). Croyle is just that bad.

jon_bois
If Matt Cassel is out, the Chiefs' backup is Brodie, whose pocket presence looks something like this. http://bit.ly/8AuTvj

Not only did Croyle sabotage last week's passing game against the Chargers (Dwayne Bowe: 1 catch, 3 yards), the San Diego defense was able to completely disregard him in their gameplan, and focus on shutting down the two-headed monster of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. Which they did, holding Charles to his lowest output of the season: 40 yards on 10 carries.

The Chiefs' defense has been improving, thanks largely to the sudden growth of linebacker Derrick Johnson (who I had targeted as a possible low-cost trade acquisition, before he blew up the end of last season), the arrival of Eric Berry via draft, and the emergence of Tamba Hali as an interior force. However, leave any unit on the field for forty minutes, and they will leak yardage and points.

What if Cassel plays?

bobfescoe
Cassel says 99% chance he plays #chiefs

If Cassel is able to go, then the defense gameplan has to shift from stuffing the run to presuring the QB -- and getting him down. In their last 8 games, here are their offensive point totals when Cassel is sacked fewer than twice: 31, 42, 31, 42. Contrarily, here are their point totals when Cassel is downed twice or more: 13, 20, 29, 10.

The key factor?

Spagnuolo's third down defensive calls will need a big rebound from last week's clinical vivisection at the hands of the Saints. This is a Chiefs team that can be explosive at times, but can be offensively inconsistent. Not allowing them to extend drives will be a critical factor, and will give Bradford more time to operate.

This time, the "Governor's Cup" actually stands for something -- the winner gets a clear path to the playoffs, for at least one more week.

Week 14: Rams (6-6) at Saints (9-3)

Dec 12, 2010 3:00 CST

13 31

NFL.com: Recap | Play by Play | Video

The last three road games have had a galvanizing effect on the Rams, as they cleared several hurdles that stood between them and becoming a winning team. And though they lost by a significant margin this week, this game helped define the character of this team, and showed hints of the power they could become.

Three weeks ago, this young team had built a 4-6 record on the strength of four home victories, but had their ephemeral Dome field advantage punctured by the Atlanta Falcons. This blow to their pride would be followed by three consecutive games on the road, already proven to be a treacherous place

This young team broke a streak of losing winnable road games versus the Broncos, then broke an eight-game streak against a division rival by throttling the Cardinals. The coaching staff also cleared a few mental roadblocks, by dialing up the intensity and intelligence on defense, by placing more trust in their quarterback and their passing offense, and essentially learning how to win.

The next plateau to reach? Proving that they belong among the ranks of playoff teams, by beating a squad with a winning record. That will have to wait for at least a week, after Sunday's loss to the reigning Super Bowl champions. But something else just as significant may have happened: despite a mistake-filled, three-turnover day, Sam Bradford officially made the Rams his team.  

Granted, Bradford has seemingly done everything a rookie could do to earn the trust of his teammates, and he has already led them to as many wins in 2010 as this franchise has had in the last three seasons combined. He has taken hits and bounced back up to deliver strikes. He has made throws that no Rams QB has made in a number of years. He has commanded the huddle and the offense like a veteran. He doesn't brag about victories, and doesn't shrug off defeats. On Sunday, though, he showed something else: that he will be the last man fighting for victory, if necessary. 

Scene: late in the fourth quarter, the Rams are driving down the field toward the red zone, a place of peril in this game. This was their sixth trip inside the Saints' 30 yard line, and the first five went like this: field goal, field goal, interception, missed field goal, interception. The game's outcome has already been sealed, but the Rams want that touchdown. A Steven Jackson carry on third down gets them to the very precipice, but the ball appears to come out at the one yard line, and Saints linebacker Roman Harper picks up the ball and starts racing downfield towards yet another soul-crushing defensive touchdown. 

But Sam Bradford chased him down, and ran him off the field. As it turns out, the play was ruled dead before the fumble, but that didn't diminish the spirit of Bradford's feat. One play later, on a do-or-die fourth down, Bradford shows another layer of toughness that few thought he possessed, shoving through the pile on his first-ever NFL quarterback sneak. 

This game isn't supposed to be easy. Leading a team out of the depth isn't supposed to happen quickly. Bradford got his uniform dirty today, doing the hard work alongside the rest of his Rams, but the work is there. The spirit is there. And while the division title is still in reach, that's just a small goal compared to the larger one of rebuilding this team's psyche from the the inside of the huddle out. 

Consider that goal accomplished.  

Week 13: Cards (3-8) at Rams (5-6)

Dec 5, 2010 3:15 CST

19 6

NFL.com: Recap | Play by Play | Video

In their first matchup this season, the Rams defense mostly held the Cardinals offense in check. However, for one five-play drive (all runs) that ended in six points, we simply forgot how to tackle. Tim Hightower and Larod Stevens-Howling ran roughshod, covering 75 yards in four carries, as our men in blue reeled.

In this game's first quarter, two Tim Hightower runs accounted for 52 yards, and set up the Cardinals for two field goals on their first two drives. As the Rams offense sputtered and coughed, Rams fans felt a cold feeling in the pit of their stomachs. Could we really be on the verge of giving this game away?

But from there on out, the Rams defense clamped down hard on the desert birds. After giving up 109 yards in the game's first two drives, Fred Robbins and company allowed only 115 more the rest of the way. As the Rams offense finally ground into gear and began putting points on the board, their defense allowed no answer by the Cardinals. When the wreckage cleared, two redbird quarterbacks had been shelved -- one benched, the other wrenched -- and a briefly feisty team prepares itself for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, and hope they get as lucky as the Rams did with Sam Bradford.

Game Notes

• After his best game as a pro, Sam Bradford was pretty ordinary. Fortunately, ordinary for Bradford is a lot better than anything the other sideline could dial up. But an efficient 18/29, 187 yard performance with no TD passes (one sure score was batted down by Calais Campbell) won't impress the fantasy heads who glommed onto Bradford after last week's breakout game.


• Uncharacteristically, Bradford struggled most on third downs. Incomplete to Danario. Incomplete to Amendola. Incomplete to Danario. Complete to Darby for 2 yards on a 3rd and 8. Sacked. Incomplete to Gibson. That's the unabridged telling of Bradford's third downs in the first half. His first third down of the later half? Badly overthrown, and intercepted. Our man Sam did finally manage to convert a few third downs, as the offense finally got in gear (switching to no-huddle helped), but he clearly isn't going to enjoy watching the tape of this one.



• Has Danny Amendola become a decoy? After a massive, 20-target day in week 5 (the same week Mark Clayton fell for the year), defenses have aggressively tried to take away Amendola; like water flowing around an obstacle, Bradford has simply found another direction to go. Here are his targets by week since then: 6, 5, 9, 11, 8, 7, and this week? Only two passes his way.

  And yet, the passing offense still worked, as Brandon Gibson hauled in 6 catches on 7 looks, Fells and Bajema combined for 5 catches on 8 looks, and Laurent Robinson caught both balls thrown his way.



• The good news: Danario Alexander was able to play two weeks in a row. The bad news? He wasn't particularly effective, as Bradford tried to go his way seven times, but only came away with two connections for 20 yards. Partly the problem was the stiff and awkward play-calling in the first half, including an ugly attempt at a fade route in the end zone, but clearly the timing wasn't there on timing routes. Not surprising for a receiver with probably fewer than twenty total practices with his QB.



• Chris Long was neutralized, but the Rams' pass rush wasn't. The Cardinals seemed hell-bent on not letting #72 beat them, but in so doing, they opened up tons of other pass rushing lanes, most notably the one just to his right. Fred Robbins had a monster day lining up next to Long, with three tackles for loss including two sacks, another quarterback hit, and a forced fumble. And so the Rams battered and knocked out two quarterbacks -- possibly for more than just this game. Derek Anderson may have a concussion, and after only three snaps, Max Hall had his shoulder dislocated.

  Inexplicably, with good things seeming to happen in the run game and the scoreboard hardly out of reach, Ken Whisenhunt kept drawing up pass plays. The Rams defenders didn't complain one bit. They just put the bit back in their mouths and charged down the alleys.

  While Whisenhunt shuffled quarterbacks, the Rams put together their most dominating defensive quarter all year. Arizona could only muster 9 plays in the third quarter, punted twice, were intercepted once, held the ball for only 3:04, and earned (-7) yards for their trouble. And while the Rams weren't exactly awesome on offense, they did post the game's only touchdown in response to effectively put the game out of reach. (And Dom Curry coined my new favorite nickname for Steven Jackson, after his 27-yard breakaway scoring run.)

DomCurry_15
Good Run Bossman#39!!!!!!

• Spagnuolo and Shurmur finally found the formula to close a game out. The Rams continued to struggle in drives that start "run-run-pass" or "run-run-run." But with 5:17 left on the clock, they got the ball in hand and gave Bradford the reins. Two passes led to two first downs and melted 40 seconds off the clock -- this freed up the lanes for the Bossman, who carried four consecutive times, burning another 90 seconds. A third down conversion via the air, and three more runs later, and the Rams had chiseled a hard-earned win into the record. THIS is how it's supposed to work.

Adrian Wilson took it as his personal mission to "welcome" Sam Bradford to the NFL in week one. He had a superhuman game against the Rams, flying all over the field with abandon and ferocity, adding to his reputation as a Ram Killer. He accounted for Sam Bradford's first career interception, and grabbed a second INT to ice the game in the final minutes. He blocked a punt, and skied over a would be blocker to sack Bradford on a blitz. In short, Wilson was a monster.

“He looks like a linebacker," says Rams offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur. "He’s one of the biggest darn safeties you’ll ever see. He does a lot of work near the line of scrimmage. We’ve got to get a blocker on him.”

But somewhere along the way during this lost season in the desert, Wilson became a huge liability on defense; Pro Football Focus currently has him ranked as one of their five worst safeties. What's going on here? And how will it affect the Rams' gameplan this weekend?

Cardinals' Defense under the Microscope

Firstly, to get a handle on Wilson's poor rating, I reached out to the guys at PFF.

PFF_Akshay
He's been a liability in coverage this season, and to be honest, it seems like that whole D hasn't been trying for awhile

Secondly, we need to explore the numbers for Wilson's performance.

Weeks 1-7: Thrown at 10 times, only six passes completed for 87 yards.
Weeks 8-12: Thrown at 19 times, 15 passes completed for 253 yards.

Just to provide some context, Arizona was 3-3 and very much in division contention after Week 7; they have not won a game since. Defensively, the Cardinals were seldom as good as they were in Week one, though they had some shining moments here and there. Essentially, what was a bi-polar unit has now become a terminally depressed unit capable of being run or or thrown on, whatever the opponent's game plan requires.

Weeks 1-7: 368.7 yards per game given up. 26.6 ppg.
Weeks 8-12: 428.4 yards per game given up. 31.8 ppg.

However, Wilson still stands as the surly Goliath in the path of the Rams' offense. Something about the blue and gold just gets him going. He has more career solo tackles (80), more sacks (7.5), more interceptions (6) and more passes batted down (14) against the Rams than any other team. And as one of the few professional players at full health on this defense, he can become that presence that the defensive unit could rally behind.

At this point, though, all his seniority and stature in the backfield have given him is a clear vantage point on all that is going wrong with the defense today.

Last year, I thought that the elevation of Bill Davis as the defensive coordinator in Arizona, replacing the deposed Clancy Pendergast, was a key factor in the division. And last year, Davis could seem to do no wrong, as the Cardinals' D ranked better (14th overall) than any point in the last six years. This year, however, whether it's the difficulty of replacing stalwart veterans Karlos Dansby and Antrelle Rolle, or whether Davis has lost his magic touch, the Cards' on D have sunk to new depths (31st overall).

Rams' Gameplan

There isn't really a pattern here that's easy to identify, but that may not be a problem. In recent weeks, Wilson has been beaten by slot receivers (notably Percy Harvin, 2 huge catches in Week 9), tight ends (Visanthe Shiancoe), deep threats (Deon Butler and Ben Obomanu, two catches totaling 103 yards in week 10), and running backs (Cadillac Williams, 3 catches in Week 8).

This implies that all Sam Bradford needs to do is play his game of "find the open man" that he shredded Parrish Cox and the Denver Broncos' secondary with last week.

"I’ll tell you what, that guy’s a player," says Wilson of the Rams' emerging star at quarterback. "He’s improved dramatically from the first game to where he is now. He’s not waiting for the routes to develop. He knows where he’s going with the football right away.

"We're going to have our hands full," concludes Wilson. No word on whether he was licking his chops at the time.