Pre-Snap

The Rams come out in 11 personnel (1 running back, 1 tight end). They are in the hurry-up as the 1st half is coming to a close. Bradford and company have already gone 42 yards on 7 plays, but time is running out to get into scoring position. 

As the Chiefs begin to plummet into obscurity, Dwayne Bowe wants out. Again. 

The talented receiver is the only weapon in the Kansas City passing game, but with only a one-year deal in his pocket and a crashing tide of changes due to hit his team, he may no longer be a part of their long-term plans. Chiefs GM Scott Pioli would be foolish not to listen to offers before the NFL's trade deadline, but should a team like the Rams be picking up the phone? 

If you were Les Snead, and you could get Bowe for a similar price as Anquan Boldin (give up 3rd and 4th round picks for the WR and a 5th-rounder), would you pull the trigger? There are pros and cons to either answer to this question. Here, two members of the RamsHerd staff take sides and square off. 

Syllogisms are often used to form conclusions in sports. For those that do not study logic, a syllogism is a form of a logical argument where the conclusion is inferred from two prior statements. An easy example is:

All humans will eventually die.

All football players are humans.

All football players will eventually die.

After the last two games, I began asking myself whether the following syllogism is true:

Michael Brockers played without injury in the Arizona and Miami game.

The Rams run defense improved dramatically in the Arizona and Miami game.

Michael Brockers improved the Rams run defense.

The title to this article is the conclusion of the above syllogism. I put it in the form of a question because I am a naturally curious person. I like to know the answer to the question why. Therefore, I went back and watched every run play in the Arizona and Miami game.[1]  

The Arizona Cardinals wanted to run the ball against the St. Louis Rams. They were lucky to get 45 total rushing yards. Miami was planning on “taking advantage” of the Rams poor run defense.  The Dolphins ran the ball 18 times for a whopping 19 yards.  Therefore, the first two statements of the syllogism are true. However, after reviewing the film, it is difficult to say that Michael Brockers is the one person who is responsible for the improvement.

The St. Louis Rams were the better team last week, looking at numbers only. The Rams had 462 total yards to the Dolphin’s 192 yards. The Rams had 22 first downs. The Dolphins only had 12. The vaunted number-one-ranked run defense allowed 6 yards a carry and 162 total rushing yards. Not surprisingly, the Rams also lead in time of possession by almost seven minutes. 

Nevertheless, the Rams lost the game. How? Well, the Rams also lead in turnovers with three fumbles with one actual turnover. They also lead in penalties. The Rams had 12 penalties for 94 yards, while the dolphins only had 5 penalties for 40 yards. The victory in penalties was surprising given the dolphins huge advantage with Incognito on their roster. Finally, the Dolphins capitalized on their opportunities, while the Rams squandered theirs.

The second quarter, in particular, exemplified the massive discrepancy in taking advantage of opportunities. The Dolphins had a miserable first drive with four penalties and no first downs.  However, the Dolphins boomed a 63 yard punt, which negated any field position advantage the Rams may have earned. The Rams drove from their own 27 to the Dolphins 34, but missed the field goal. The Dolphins now had great field position, and took advantage of it with a touchdown. The Rams proceeded to fumble the next kickoff, giving the Dolphins amazing field position at the Rams 25. The Dolphins gained exactly 0 yards, but still kicked a field goal for another three points. On the next possession, the Rams had a 59 yard drive, but missed the field goal. Miami took advantage, while the Rams failed.

Let’s now take a look at the factors I suggested were important to a win and determine whether there was any validity.

Preview 1 - SCREEN TO RUN

The St Louis Rams will play host to a sell-out crowd of football-crazed fans in a couple of weeks, but this "home" game will be six time zones away. While I have my reservations about the NFL's expansion across the pond, there is no doubt that there are folks over there who love our game.

Now they want to know about us: Why do we love the Rams? Answer this survey, and have a chance to win an autographed Sam Bradford helmet. I did it, it's painless, I promise.

Thanks is due to one of those football-mad Brits I was talking about earlier, Ross Miles. Ross has been a friend of the RamsHerd since our earliest days. (In fact, @RossMiles is officially listed as follower number 7 of 1600+., so there you go.) Ross is now lucky enough to work directly for the NFL as a European social media ambassador. Which, if I understand correctly, means he gets to wear a sash when he tweets, and is also diplomatically immune from Twitter Jail.

It's hard to blame the gameplan when you out-gain your opponent by nearly 200 yards. It's hard to blame the defense when they utterly shut down the biggest threats in the Dolphins offense. It's hard to blame the refs when they gift-wrap two huge calls for you, taking fumbles off the board. It's hard to blame Sam Bradford when he averages better than 8 yards per pass (but some will surely try). 

The Rams were undone not by a single player or a single play, or by a single player (no, not even rookie kicker Greg Zuerlein, who missed three field goals wide left from 48, 52 and 66), but by a series of little mistakes. The arithmetic of football added up against St Louis today - shoot yourself in the foot more times than your opponent, and you likely end up in the loss column. 

Looking at the numbers, this doesn’t look good for the Rams. Since the end of the 2007 season, the Rams have won exactly five road games. Yes, this is a different team, but this new team is 0 and 2 on the road. The Rams need to be able to run the ball, or at least threaten the run to have offensive success. Turns out, Miami is the number one defense against the run in the NFL. The fins only allow 61.4 yard per game.

The Dolphins weakness is pass defense. They are 26^th against the pass, but the Rams are not at their best when they are pass happy. Furthermore, the Rams just lost their favorite target in the passing game, Danny Amendola. Last week’s seven completion game may not give Rams’ fans warm and fuzzy feelings. With our back-up offensive line still playing, I should also note that Miami is 6^th in the NFL in sacks with 15.

I am certain some fans will say: Arizona beat the Dolphins, and we beat Arizona. Unfortunately, the NFL is not that easy. Given the facts above, Rams’ fans should not look at this game as an easy win.

With that said, I think the Rams can and will win this game. We have the better coach, the better quarterback, and the better defense. We know we have the better coach because both teams wanted Fisher, and we got him. The Dolphins had to go with option 2.