Rams Fantasy Corner: Week 9 Arizona Cardinals

Written by Derek Pease on .

BrandonLloydNewOrleansSaintsvStLouiskh9SFVQ1tJSlThe Rams performance last Sunday against the New Orleans Saints caused a lot of fantasy owner to sit up and take notice.  For the first time all season Rams’ players were a force in Standard, PPR and even IDP leagues. With the toughest part of their schedule behind them can we finally get on board with the Rams’ players as legit fantasy options?

Yes and no. As impressive as their collective performances were against the Saints I would still suggest evaluating any Ram on a game by game basis. The only exceptions would be Brandon Lloyd and Steven Jackson.  For Robert Quinn and Chris Long duplicating the days they had will go a long way toward putting them into that conversation.

That being said week 9 in Arizona should be an all hands on deck for Rams in fantasy football. Their best weapon in Larry Fitzgerald is being somewhat limited by their QB situation the same way Colts receivers are. With a bottom of the pack offensive line and a less than spectacular defense (sans Adrian Wilson) this week match-up has the makings of a productive fantasy day.

Here are this week’s plays.

Brandon Lloyd: In his first two games with the Rams, Lloyd has immediately stepped in as the focal point of St. Louis' passing game -- even with A.J. Feeley at quarterback last week. Indeed, he has been the target on nearly 55 percent of passes intended for Rams wide receivers during that span. That's an Andre Johnson-esque usage pattern, and, given that he's the only wideout on the roster with a mastery-level knowledge of Josh McDaniels' offense, it's unlikely to change anytime soon.

This week, Lloyd faces a Cardinals pass defense that we rank 29th. In seven games this season, Arizona has allowed a 100-yard receiver five times, and has even allowed 98 or more yards to two receivers on the same team twice. If you're scoring at home, that's essentially one 100-yard receiver allowed per game.

Rams should pass on Luck

Written by Brennan Smith on .

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Sam Bradford is better than Andrew Luck and there should be zero consideration of drafting him if the Rams end up with the first overall pick. 

Bring on the criticism, the second guessing and the obscenities because Rams fans need to get real about the semi-messianic hype Luck is receiving as the next “it” quarterback coming out of college.

Quotes like this one show the ignorance and knee-jerk reaction of Luck lovers and analysts like Bill Simmons, who think the Rams should pounce on Luck if given the chance and ranks Bradford below players like Brian Hoyer and Donovan McNabb:

    “Past 10 starts: two wins, eight losses (seven by double-digits), 4 TDs, 8 picks, 132 points scored. Anyone who brings up "Should the Rams keep Andrew Luck or Sam Bradford?" on a talking-head show should be electroshocked. There's a Bradford in the draft every year. There's a Luck in the draft every 10 years. Just stop it.”

St. Louis fans and pundits alike seem to have an epically short memory, dismissing that only a year ago Bradford helped resurrect a 1-15 team to one game short of the playoffs.

Now that he has been MIA for the last two weeks with an ankle injury and has shown signs of regression as he transitions from a Shurmurized dink and dunk to a more open Josh McDaniels offense, his rookie sheen has worn off.

In his place, Luck has become a knight in shining armor whose potential is the forbidden fruit that a faction of Rams fans can’t help but salivate over.

However, there are huge differences in what Bradford already is and what Luck could be. Bradford is an NFL quarterback, Luck is not. Bradford has started games at the highest level, Luck has not. Bradford has guys like Rodger Saffold protecting him, Luck has top tackle prospect Jonathan Martin.

For perspective, let’s look at the pre-draft scouting reports from CBS sports for each quarterback:

Accuracy:

Bradford: “One of the more deadly accurate passers in recent memory whether throwing short, intermediate or deep.”

Luck: “Possesses extraordinary accuracy at all levels of the field.”

Arm Strength:

Bradford: “Tall, lanky player who doesn’t own a cannon but has more than enough arm strength to be successful in the NFL.”

Luck: “Doesn’t boast a Matt Stafford-like howitzer, but has plenty of arm strength to make every NFL throw.”

Intangibles:

Bradford: “Intelligent, high-character, well-respected player on and off the field.”

Luck: “A winner. Highly intelligent.”

Luck grades out slightly better in reading defenses, takes most of his snaps in a pro-style offense and calls most of his own plays but the grades are eerily similar for both passers.

Here is a comparison of both Bradford and Luck’s best two seasons in college since Bradford’s junior season was cut short by injury:

Bradford (2007 and 2008): Started 28 of 28 games, 7,841 yards, 69 percent completion percentage, 86 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, 23-5 total record with losses to West Virginia in the Fiesta Bowl and Florida in the BCS National Championship. 

Luck (2010 and 2011 projected): Started 26 of 26 games, 6,942 yards, 70 percent completion percentage,  70 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, 24-2 total record with wins against Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl and a win in a 2011 BCS bowl. 

Again, the margins are razor thin with advantage to Bradford with games started and touchdowns thrown and advantage to Luck with bowl wins and completion percentage. 

The point is, Luck may turn out to be a phenomenal NFL quarterback but the Rams shouldn’t be concerned if they pass on him because they took a nearly identical prospect last year in Bradford. 

They already have a franchise quarterback that can lead the Rams back to prosperity with the right tools around him, possibly USC left tackle Matt Kalil or South Carolina receiver Alshon Jeffery that could come from the pick some fans want to use on Luck.

The reason the Rams stand at 1-6 is because of a slew of problems that are not all Bradford’s fault and not even the “legendary” Luck could fix if put into the same situation.

If the Rams pass on Luck for guys like Kalil and Jeffery that can help make Bradford better, so be it.

That just gives St. Louis fans the opportunity to maybe one day watch the Bradford-led Rams take on a Luck-led Dolphins or Colts in the Super Bowl, a scenario that starts with Luck heading somewhere else on draft day.

The Battle for Deuce: Pregame notes and links

Written by Will on .

Sam Bradford, sidelined. Photo via STL Post-Dispatch.
Sam Bradford, taking "mental reps" again this week?

Item: The ugliest matchup in this week's schedule just got uglier, as Adam Schefter reports that Kevin Kolb is unlikely to play (turf toe). Meanwhile, Bradford attended practice, and took "baby steps," says Jim Thomas. 

    Spagnuolo: "He got some mental reps, because he's out here watching."

In a related note, "taking mental reps" is now my new favorite euphemism for internet porn.

    "Didn't move very much," Spagnuolo said. "He was standing there doing some walking stuff — that's it."

The pregame show should be hilarious. "SKELTON! FEELEY! The RAMS and CARDINALS go at it, with the WINNER getting that all-important second win. It's the BATTLE for the DEUCE!" I only wish that NBC would flex this game to Sunday night. I would love to hear Al Michaels and Chris Collinsworth expound at length on the beauty and majesty of this game.

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Item: Mike Clay of ProFootballFocus has started his annual regression analysis, and Sam Bradford's abnormally low touchdown rate is one of his biggest picks to improve. Of course, Bradford has to stop taking "mental reps" and get back on the field, first.

Related on PFF: Khaled Elsayed takes a look back at the 2008 draft (you know, the one that started out "Long-Long"). Despite Jake Long's early success, he'd have the Dolphins draft Matt Ryan #1. But it turns out the Rams did pretty well with Chris Long in that #2 slot. Elsayed wouldn't change a thing.

Related to Chris Long vs Jake Long, a nugget from this 3,000-word compendium of AFC mid-season predictions at This Given Sunday: in his last 16 games, Jake has given up 11 sacks. (Averaged only 4 per season his first three years.) Meanwhile, in his last 23 games, Chris Long now has 14 sacks, 18 hits, and 84 pressures. That's good huntin'.

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Item: Mike Sando at ESPN takes stock of defensive rookies in the NFC West, which for the Rams amounts to one player - Robert Quinn. The Rams got a lot older overall, relying on free agency to fill gaps that the draft and crop of UDFA's just didn't address. Good thing then that Quinn, who was named NFC Special Teams Player of the Week for his Plasticman-esque punt-blocking exploits, is starting to catch fire. His inside move on Jermon Bushrod for a sack of Drew Brees was a thing of beauty.  

Related: Ben Muth at Football Outsiders profiles that matchup between Quinn and Bushrod and the rest of the Saints' offensive line struggles against St Louis. 

Related: on This Given Sunday, our man Derek Pease takes a look at the Youngriest (you know, Young+Hungry) teams in the NFL. I don't know about you, but I'd love to see the Rams cut some old wood and show up on this list next year. 

Inside an Upset: Brandon Lloyd and a Critical 4th and Two

Written by Will on .

Trading for Brandon Lloyd has shown immediate dividends, but he is doing more for the Rams than just catch passes. After two years in Denver, he shows up in St Louis as the man who knows Josh McDaniels' playbook better than anyone. That knowledge and a dose of veteran savvy both showed on coach Spagnuolo's biggest gamble of the game: a must-have 4th and 2 from the New Orleans 40 yard line.

Some plays are won from their design, some are won on blocking, others on a perfect throw, but this one is won in the first two steps after the snap. Lloyd's first two steps, to be precise. 

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Here's how the play lined up: Feeley sets up in the shotgun, but Jackson is right next to him as an obvious running threat, especially with Hoomanawanui lined up immediately in front of him. Saffold's pad level is low, which could mean run play as well. New Orleans responds by cheating two linebackers and a DB in the box to Jackson's side of the ball. 

With a single-high safety, this means man coverage on the three receivers to the left side of the formation ... not that Rams receivers ever get doubled up much. But the trips formation -- Gibson wide left and offset, Lloyd on the line in the slot, and Salas offset on the inner slot -- offers any number of possibilities, especially only two yards from a new set of sticks. Naturally, the Saints press their coverage.

What Lloyd does next is laugh-out-loud funny on replay. You can see his head turned toward the center, because his timing off the snap is essential. As soon as the ball moves, he plows forward into his man and bowls him directly into the man covering Salas.

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If you were wondering how Salas got so free on this must-make play, that's all there was to it. Two steps and a bunch of calculated mayhem, with Lloyd playing roller derby and Gibson selling a go route to clear out the third defender. It's the easiest pass Feeley gets to throw all day. Salas picks up 17 yards before he's touched, then gets up and runs for 16 more, but those extra are called back on replay. 

Four plays later the Rams drive stalls, but Josh Brown connects to give the Rams their first lead in weeks, a lead they would never surrender. More importantly, the Rams never surrendered their aggressive attitude that fed this play call and its success.

And while we praise Josh McDaniels for his play design and his kinship with Lloyd, who knew exactly how to run it to spring his counterpart, let's not forget the stones it took for Steve Spagnuolo to call that play in the first place. There was no timeout. No discussion. 4th and 2 on their 40, a no-punt-zone, no question.

The decision to call the play itself was a marked difference from Spags' "play-it-safe" mentality when faced with this exact down and distance against the Washington Redskins in 2009.

Second Season: Where Do Rams Go From Here

Written by Derek Pease on .

Spags_-_SaintsIn my post last week I noted the second season begins this Sunday at Arizona. Well, apparently the Rams were eager to get started. Opening the second-half (well kind of) of their season the way many expected them to do against the Eagles eight weeks ago.

This next game against the Cardinals is still a very important one. Recovering from a win can be just as difficult as from a loss. There is a mental side to it that this year’s Rams are not accustomed to. There is let down, complacency and the sense of accomplishment that they must fight through this week and for the remainder of their schedule should they continue to win.

Fans should remain cautiously optimistic from here on out. Look back no further than when Jim Haslett took over for the head coaching failure that was Scott Linehan. The Rams put together back-to-back impressive wins over the Redskins and Cowboys only to lose their next ten games. Where the Rams go from here and how they respond will be something to watch.

With nine games left there is still the opportunity to salvage the season. Beating the Saints, and in the fashion with which they did, might just be the catalyst to get the train rolling. With San Francisco playing at the level they are the division is most likely out of reach but a 7-9 season is not out of the realm of possibility. After starting off as poorly as they did, and on so many levels, would give the team a head of steam heading into the off season.

It would almost assuredly mean the return of head coach Steve Spagnuolo and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. And perhaps with an entire off season of OTA’s and a full mini-camp leading into 2012 that could be a good thing. And if the Rams are able to pull out six more wins this season I for one would be okay with the return of Spags and McDaniels in their current roles. Billy Devaney, well that’s a different topic for another day.

The Rams need to approach every game from here on out as if they are 0-6. They were playing with house money against New Orleans and came out fast and strong. They jumped passing routes and even got sacks only rushing three. More so, they proved that even with the talent on THIS roster, winning and playing at a high level can be done.

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Inside an Upset: James Laurinaitis and an Inspired Linebacker Performance

Written by Will on .

A lot of things had to go right for the Rams to beat the Saints, but first and foremost, they had to build a lead. Everything about the Rams' offensive and defensive gameplans, from their versatility in playcalling and formations to their aggressive pass rush, works better with a lead than when playing from behind.

Of course, Steven Jackson and the offense had to do their part, and they did, but the job of not falling behind against the potent New Orleans offense fell to the defense. And there were three critical performances that deserve praise. This is the first of three posts on the subject.

Spotlight: Laurinaitis and the linebackers' physical play

We have heard a lot of talk about "gap discipline" when it comes to diagnosing what's wrong with the Rams' interior defense, and there have been plenty of examples of players getting caught out of position. This has been especially true on pass rushing downs when Ken Flajole dials up a linebacker blitz, and watches in horror as the play turns into a delayed rush or a screen. One hole and there's no tackler within ten yards of the player.

That has been a core problem for the Rams since week 1, when Michael Vick's escapability turned busted pass plays into signficant gains on the ground. But sometimes, fixing it just comes down to being more physical than the other guy.

Witness this first quarter run play by the Saints, which will go to halfback Chris Ivory.

NOR run play set

Up to this point, watching the position of left tackle Jermon Bushrod (74) had been a reliable indicator of the play to come. Hand in the rubber dirt: run play. Two-point stance: pass. And the Rams hadn't strayed from their base defense. However, this time they try to cross up the Rams, just as the Cowboys did all last week. Coincidentally, Flajole picks this exact moment to try an all-out pass rush.

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The stage is set for disaster. Eight Rams defenders are sucked up in the line of scrimmage, and left guard Carl Nicks (77) is pulling to the right to clear a path for Ivory -- right through James Laurinaitis' spot. The other three Rams defenders are chasing their receivers down the sidelines. There are no crossing routes on the play, leaving a wide open middle and a sure-fire twenty to thirty yard gain. 

But here's where the determination to make a one-on-one play and beat your man makes the difference. Laurinaitis gets underneath Nicks and diverts him to the right, simultaneously bouncing himself backwards and planting to make a play.

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Laurinaitis wraps up Ivory from behind and drags him down for a five-yard gain. On second and twelve, that's a defensive success, forcing a third and long. But compared to the bloodletting at the hands of Demarco Murray the week before, this is nothing short of a triumph.

Laurinaitis finished the day with ten solo tackles, a sack, and a pass deflection deep downfield against Saints super-weapon Jimmy Graham. And his counterparts Chamberlain and Kehl played very well in limited duty as well.

One week after giving up almost 300 yards rushing, the Rams throttled the Saints three-headed running attack, holding them to 56 yards (2.8 per carry average) and turning New Orleans into a one-dimensional team.

Of course, being the Saints, that was still a pretty damn good dimension. More on that in the next piece.

About Chris Long and his baseball swing

Written by Will on .

With three sacks of Drew Brees on Sunday, Chris Long had ample opportunity to show off an array of post-sack celebrations. But it was the first one that caught everyone's eye, especially those of David Freese and the World Champion Cardinals watching from the sidelines.

After meeting James Hall in Brees' backyard and dumping him to the ground, Long got up, shook off backslaps from his teammates, put his hands together and swung for the fences.

Watch: Chris Long's baseball swing sack celebration.

It was a fitting tribute to Freese, Pujols, Berkman and the array of clutch hitting displayed by the Redbirds in their impossible Game 6 five-time comeback win. But it reminded me of another sack artist who used to make that his trademark move.

That man was Neil Smith, former defensive end for the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos. Smith, a Nebraska product, was displaying some Midwest pride in the game's greatest hitter at the time: George Brett of the Kansas City Royals. Smith's rookie season with the Chiefs was in 1988, one year after Brett's Royals -- with some help from one of the worst calls in World Series history -- shocked the Cardinals in the 1987 World Series.

Neil Smith's baseball swing sack celebration.

Now I'm not one to endorse thievery, but in this case, it feels extra good to see a St Louis team and a St Louis star steal that celebration back.