Oregon State DT Stephen Paea

While there may not be a Ndamukong Suh in the draft this year, the draft pool of talent might be deepest on the defensive line. At least, so says Doug Farrar in his latest article for Football Outsiders, who has identified seven "near-certainties" to be picked in the first round. However, his article focuses on two players -- Corey Liuget, who we discussed yesterday, and Stephen Paea -- that are fringe first-rounders whose stock may swing heavily on their performance in next week's Combine.

While both receive positive scouting reports, I asked Farrar which he might prefer on the Rams, if he were standing in Coach Spagnuolo's shoes.

FO_DougFarrar
@RamsHerd Probably Liuget if Robbins was younger, but I like Paea as a guy to play 1-tech or over center as Robbins replacement.

FO_DougFarrar
@RamsHerd Robbins had a completely amazing season, but DT + mid-30s + microfracture a while back = yikes.

The Rams signed both Fred Robbins and Chris Hovan in the offseason, hoping for an injection of veteran savvy and leadership, and praying against the ravaging effects of age and injury. While Hovan fell in the first week of training camp, Robbins was lucky enough to stay upright and effective all year, logging almost 700 snaps. Can we expect a repeat performance in 2011? Clearly, the Rams have to be thinking long term when they draft at the position.

Illinois DT Corey Liuget: Legit 1st round pick?

ESPN's Mel Kiper shook up his draft board with his latest mock draft. Most notable difference for the Rams? WR Julio Jones disappeared before the #14 pick rolled around, sending Devaney and company in search of the mythical "BATFAN" -- the best available talent that fits any need. (Hat tip to Roar of the Lions for coining the term.) And Kiper's pick certainly stirs the pot for Rams draft followers:

DT - Corey Liuget, Illinois

Liuget is a Junior, and has not been widely written about as rising stars from the Shrine Game and the Senior Bowl, and as such this is the first time he's hit the RamsHerd radar. Digging around, it's fair to say that opinion among NFL scouts is widely mixed on the interior lineman. One thing you can't deny, though, is that Kiper hits a glaring need for the Rams right on the head: the DT shuffle plagued the Rams all year.

Is Liuget a legit candidate to fill this spot? Here is a sampling of what the scouts say.

Shane P Hallam, Draft Countdown: "Liuget is Legit!"

Of the scouts I polled, Hallam was easily the most positive on Liuget. Some more thoughts from his scouting report:

Liuget has been nearly unstoppable when penetrating the defensive line, and it has showed up on the stat sheet. He has 4.5 sacks and 12.5 TFL, continuing to put pressure on the quarterback and in the backfield....

He is a great fit in a 3-technique 4-3 system where he will be used as a pass rusher whose goal is to get into the backfield....

He does have times when caught out of position or he uses the wrong technique and falters, but the tools are there...

Assuming Spagnuolo wants to pressure from all four defensive line spots, as is his norm, Liuget sounds like a nice fit. However, he does not sound like the prototypical run-stuffer that lines up over center. Given that the Rams' quantum leap forward in defensive performance this season resulted primarily from improved ability to defend the pass, though, that may not be a concern for the Rams' draft war room.

However, it's far from a slam-dunk among scouts that Liuget belongs in this conversation ... at least not right away. Scott Porter from New Era Scouting rates Liuget 4th among DTs. Fellow New Era scout Matt Miller says: "He would make an impact. Pretty raw, though. Love him as a three tech." However, Erik Galko from Optimum Scouting is significantly more bearish.

OptimumScouting
Not 1st round talent for us, rather Austin, A.Smith, many more RT @RamsHerd: @OptimumScouting Thoughts on Corey Liuget? Kiper mocks to STL.

In fact, Liuget doesn't even crack the top ten of the current Optimum Scouting DT rankings, with a simple note inscribed: "Should have stayed another year, raw talent." Via tweet, Galko expands: "Think he's a bit of a project, raw talent who doesn't max out as a Top level talent. Lots of good DTs, probably 3rd-4th best 3-tech."

The other players Galko suggests? That would be North Carolina DE/DT Marvin Austin, and Missouri DE Aldon Smith, who was the subject of a long and interesting Twitter debate yesterday between myself and TST's resident draftnik, known to the world as "3k". (In fact, even if Julio Jones was available, 3k would grab Alson Smith ahead of him.)

3k_
@RamsHerd ...I still think the leap to be had by taking Aldon Smith is larger than the leap in adding any rookie WR.

Before you start shaking your head, 3k was the very first to pencil in Sam Bradford to the Rams last year, weeks ahead of Adam Schefter when the rest of the mediaverse (including myself) had Suh fever. Of course, I still disagree, but it's a fun debate. Bottom line, this #14 pick could go in many different directions, and combine performances are going to shake up these rankings even further.  

Addendum: Don't like the Liuget pick? VanRam at TST offers some alternatives.  

Julio Jones is almost a slam-dunk mock draft pick for the Rams. But would he be able to contribute right away in McDaniels' offense?

CoachTruck
Rams question: with mc d as OC does that lessen the need for WR seeing as he seems to make what ever he has look great?

Faithful RamsHerd reader @CoachTruck raises an interesting question on the Twitterverse this morning. The Rams have been consistently mocked as taking Alabama WR Julio Jones with the #14 pick, and widely seen as a potential player for a free agent prize pass-catcher. (With Vincent Jackson franchised and out of reach, NFL.com's Steve Wyche suggests Jaguars TE Marcedes Lewis.) ESPN's Mike Sando chipped in with a look at rookie WRs taken on McDaniels' teams (the 2002-08 Patriots, and the 2009-10 Broncos).

One thing became apparent when looking at that list of rookies, though -- it wasn't a very impressive crop. Deion Branch leads the pack in production, but he didn't start producing until later in his career. Demaryius Thomas, taken in the first round by the Broncos, would seem to be a perfect blueprint for Julio Jones -- both are big, rangy receivers. But Thomas all but disappeared from the game plan early through the season. Injuries were partly to blame, but his production was already being swallowed up by unheralded veterans Eddie Royal and Brandon Lloyd.

Take a look at the age and experience of the starting wideout groups on each of McDaniels' teams. Except for the remarkable 2003 team, that list of rookies barely shows up. (WRs listed in order of most catches to least, with age in parentheses. Rookies are starred.)

2002 Patriots: Troy Brown (31), David Patten (28), Deion Branch* (23), David Givens* (22)
2003 Patriots: Branch (24), Brown (32), David Givens (23), Bethel Johnson* (23)
2004 Patriots: Givens (24), Patten (30), Branch (25), Brown (33) 
2005 Patriots: Branch (26), Givens (25), Brown (34), Tim Dwight (30)
2006 Patriots: Reche Caldwell (27), Brown (35), Doug Gabriel (26), Jabar Gaffney (26) 

By this point, only Brown in 2002 had more than 80 catches, and Branch's 78-catch season in 2005 was the only other to exceed 65 grabs. The Patriots were winning on guile and spreading the ball all over the field. Then, with the acquisition of Randy Moss and Wes Welker in 2007, the passing world turned upside down. 

2007 Patriots: Wes Welker (26), Randy Moss (30), Donte Stallworth (27), Gaffney (27)
2008 Patriots: Welker (27), Moss (31), Gaffney (28)  
2009 Broncos: Brandon Marshall (25), Gaffney (29), Eddie Royal (23), Brandon Stokely (33), Brandon Lloyd (28)
2010 Broncos:  Lloyd (29), Gaffney (30), Royal (24), Demaryius Thomas* (22)

It makes me wonder if the complexities and nuances of McDaniels' "amoeba" offense -- which literally changes each week depending on opponent and matchup -- place a higher value on technical proficiency and NFL-ready thinking than on youth and raw talent. To put it in baseball terms, with pitchers and catchers reporting, is McDaniels a Dave Duncan, able to get the most out of veteran players because they can follow his gameplan? And does McDaniels share Dave Duncan's disdain for hotshot rookies?

If so, the Rams' draft in April could start out on a much different foot than many pundits expect. And we will probably see an emphasis on bringing in proven veterans with a knack for picking up offenses (hint hint: Mark Clayton).

As a corrollary to this morning's article, here is a complete (and updated) list by position of the Rams' pending free agents to be, with their salary in 2010 noted. If there is no free agency, each of these players would report back to the Rams, who would then decide whether to pay them 120% of their 2010 salary, or cut them loose. Note that Mike Sando updated his own list by noting that Billy Bajema failed to meet contract incentives to void his deal and enter free agency. (Had a damn fine year, though.) 

Player - age - salary in 2010

Offense

WR Mark Clayton - 28 - $2,076,760 
RB Ken Darby - 28 - $467,280 
TE Daniel Fells - 27 - $467,280 
OT/OG Adam Goldberg - 30 - $626,760 
TE Darcy Johnson - 28 - $391,110
WR Laurent Robinson - 25 - $464,550
TE Derek Schouman - 25 - $465,850
G Mark Setterstrom - 26 - $467,150

A few notes: Adam Goldberg is the Rams' NFLPA Player Rep, which puts him on the front lines of knowing what his fate might be in 2011. Darby's emergence as a dependable third-down pass blocker and screen option likely would have earned him a return trip to Training Camp. Setterstrom is a candidate for early retirement, with his history of annual grievous injuries in the summertime. 

Defense

CB Kevin Dockery - 27 - $1,551,110
DT Gary Gibson - 28 - $510,000
S Michael Lewis - 30 - $5,000,000 (wow! a lot to pay for 13 tackles)
DT Clifton Ryan - 26 - $467,280

Interestingly, the Rams stand to return both parts of a reasonably productive DT tandem, Cliff Ryan and Gary Gibson, who stepped in as presumptive starter when Ryan went down. However, their spot is one that could definitely stand to be improved via a fresh infusion of talent; if both are brought back, I'm guessing only one makes the roster. The most incindiary name on this list is Kevin Dockery, whose perceived value by Rams fans is wholly different from his perceived value to Rams coaches, Spagnuolo in particular.  

Sources: Contract status for 2011 comes from RotoWorld's new  Rams Team Contracts resource; 2010 Salary info comes from the Rams Roster on Fox Sports. 

Mark Clayton would love to return to the Rams. He may not have a choice without free agency in 2011.

There's a lot of doom and gloom being reported on the NFL labor talks, as many cognoscenti in the media predict that there won't be any urgency until Training Camp, and no agreement until Labor Day. And if that happens, you can forget about the Rams making any improvements to their roster via free agency, unless you count re-signing their own players.

For armchair GMs like me -- hell, like all of us who wonder "what if Sam Bradford had Vincent Jackson or Sidney Rice to throw to" -- this is a calamitous threat to our enjoyment of the offseason. At this point in the labor talks, losing free agency isn't a given, but veteran scribes like Sports Illustrated's Peter King are preparing us for disappointment, going out of his way in his Valentine's Day article to inject poison in our hearts.

The only good news you can possibly wring out of this news is that under these circumstances, the Rams are a lot better off than a lot of teams, especially in their division.