When the Rams last met the Arizona Cardinals, the birds stood atop the NFC West with a surprising 4-0 record. However, when we talked to Seth Cox of TSHQ at the time, he was not yet ready to start opening champagne bottles.

As it turns out, he was right to put the celebrations on hold. Since that Thursday night primetime matchup, the Cardinals have lost six games and two quarterbacks, and now limp back to the desert to host the Rams with a rookie under center and a lot of question marks about what the rest of the season has left.

At the same time, that 17-3 win for the Rams marked a high point on the season, and our team has a five-game winless streak of its own to worry about.

We come back to Seth for his perspective on this matchup, and what to expect from the last quarter of the season.

As the St Louis Rams' record continues to slide following a heartening 3-2 start to the season, Sam Bradford's progression on the "elite quarterback growth curve" is receiving increasing scrutiny. Whether he has a strong game (275-2-0 versus the 49ers) or a weak one (170-2-1 vs the Jets), unless the Rams win the criticism will always be there. It's just a matter of volume. 

It doesn't help that younger quarterbacks like Andy Dalton, Andrew Luck, and Robert Griffin III have stepped ahead of him in the public spotlight, nor does it help that Bradford signed the last of the big-money rookie contracts, a $79-million-dollar shadow that looms over his unimpressive win-loss total like the Sword of Damocles. 

In fairness, none of those things are relevant to Bradford's growth as a quarterback or his ability to lead the Rams to the playoffs. All we can do is look at the hallmarks of his performance that are improving, or that still need to improve. And we can look to football history for comparables.

As it turns out, we don't have to look back too far to find a highly-paid #1 overall pick who struggled to live up to expectations through his first three years, and turned out okay. That is, if winning two Super Bowls and their corresponding MVP awards is okay. 

Last Sunday marked the first time that Sam Bradford had faced a Rex Ryan defense, and the results generally did not go well. Bradford and the OL struggled to recognize where the pressure was going to come from, particularly on third downs (converting only 5 of 16). Bradford also struggled to find big plays that could beat the blitz, completing only 2 of 12 passes ten or more yards down the field. 

This play in the first quarter marks the exception. The offensive line identified and picked up Ryan's rushers, and Bradford found Austin Pettis in the deepest level of the defense for a huge gain. In this week's Anatomy of a Play, we turn on the video projector once again and take you in-depth to show how this play worked. 

As the NFL Draft becomes a year round affair, it’s never too early to talk who might be receiving a congratulatory shake from the ‘Stache come late April to inform them they’ll be donning the Ram horns.

Presuming the Rams finish the season around 5-10-1 and the Redskins finish around 6-10, St. Louis will have two picks between the fifth and 11th spots based on historical precedent of the last two drafts, leaving them with the potential to grab two elite players.

It also leaves GM Les Snead with some serious bargaining potential as the new CBA rules have now been in place for a full draft and his first shot at the April selection event showed he wasn’t afraid to move around.

In that vein, here are five potential options and scenarios the Rams could pursue while reaping the first round benefits of the RGIII trade.

One of NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell's most common critiques of quarterback play is an inability to make anticipation throws, to know when the receiver will come open before you throw the ball, and have the ball be there when he does. He has a term for quarterbacks who don't make these plays: "See-it, Throw-it quarterbacks." 

Sam Bradford, when he's off his game like he was yesterday, is a see-it, throw-it quarterback. 

When you have to wait to see what the receiver does or how the defense will play him before you throw, you end up holding the ball too long. You end up taking unnecessary hits. You end up throwing balls away. You might even miss your receiver so badly that he breaks his own ankles trying to get back to the ball. 

Sam Bradford did all of those things against the Jets, a defense that is nowhere near as good as the 49ers defense that he shredded a week ago. How could this be? 

This got me thinking. Danny Amendola's presence in the lineup is often pointed to as the difference between good Sam and bad Sam, but I think there's another factor involved: Sam Bradford has seen the 49ers defense multiple times, and has an idea how they'll play. He has never seen the Jets' defense before, not in person anyway. 

Here's a breakdown of Sam's season, between teams he has played before, and teams he is seeing for the first time in his career:  

2012 vs teams Sam has seen before

Detroit: 17-25 198 1 TD 0 INT

Washington: 26-35 310 3 TDs 1 INT

Seattle: 16-30 221 0 TD 1 INT

Arizona (*): 7-21 141 2 TDs 1 INT

Green Bay: 21-34 255 1 TD 1 INT

San Francisco: 26-39 275 2 TD 0 INT

TOTAL: 113-184 (61%), 1400 yards (7.6 ypa), 9 TD, 4 INT, 92.21 QB Rating

2012 vs teams Sam plays for the first time

Chicago: 18-35 152 0 TD 2 INT

Miami (*): 26-39 315 0 TD 0 INT

New England: 22-30 205 1 TD 1 INT

NY Jets: 23-44 170 2 TD 1 INT

TOTAL: 89-148 (60%), 842 yards (5.6 ypa), 3 TD, 4 INT, 71.39 QB Rating

Oddly enough, his completion percentage barely budges. But the key stat to watch, besides touchdown rate, is yards per attempt. These numbers, even including the two outlier games vs Arizona (a pretty good pass defense) and Miami (a pretty poor one) show you the difference between a confident quarterback who is willing to stretch the field, and an unsure quarterback who too often settles for short reads and dump-offs. 

The good news here is that Bradford is showing this kind of improvement against teams he has seen before. The bad news is that the NFL is a league of innovation. Coaches and coordinators change teams every year, and introduce new wrinkles into their schemes every year as well. If he is going to have sustainable success in this league, Bradford has got to learn faster on the field. 

Of course, Bradford said afterwards that the Jets didn't do anything surprising.

Sam Bradford on Loss to Jets "We lost all rhythm." from 101ESPN on Vimeo.

The numbers, and our eyes, say otherwise. 

It was easy to look at the good work the Rams offense did against the 49ers, and call it a turning point. Earlier in the week, we outlined six signs of offensive success that the Rams were capable of repeating. Sam Bradford and the offense utterly failed at four of those six factors, and it cost us a win against a very beatable opponent. 

Aside from limiting pre-snap penalties, here is a complete list of things the Rams did well on offense today: 

- Run blocking

- Red zone conversion

Unfortunately, they didn't do either of those things often enough. On a day when your running backs are averaging 5.6 yards per carry, it's borderline criminal to not keep feeding them. Steven Jackson in particular was running like a man possessed today, or to put it another way, he was running like Steven Jackson.  

Now, here is the list of things the Rams did not do well on offense today: 

- Vary the snap count, or show any amount of urgency at all presnap

- Get the ball out early in the down, in time with the receiver's route

- Target the Jets' aged and creaky linebackers

- Pass blocking

- Stretch the field with Givens or Amendola

- Hold on to the damn ball

- Do anything at all worth cheering for in the second and third quarter

The last point, of course, was the killer. Bradford had two excruciating turnovers that completely bled the life out of the Edward Jones Dome. The Jets took a 10-7 lead in the second quarter, and Bradford's interception and fumble gutted any chance the Rams offense had to answer. The atmosphere in the stands utterly died. I've seen more energy at a book club. But then again, a Hardy Boys book had more drama than the Rams were able to muster in the second half of the game. 

The comments of my friends around me were telling. "I was excited for this game, and I didn't want to get excited because this could happen." "I'm not even upset, I'm just numb." Judging from the lack of volume in the stands, I know they were far from alone. 

The Rams lost more than a game today. They lost a ton of the good will they had built up all season long. When the team is playing well at home, when they're showing compete against more talented opponents and giving fans something to root for through four quarters of football, it's easy to look beyond the standings and find reasons to be positive.

But when they play like this, when they put forth a bedwetting against a bad team that hearkens back to the Rich Brooks era, you can't expect to get a pass from the fans. The Rams are in the third quarter of their season. It's gut check time if we're going to get four full quarters of football worth rooting for. 

The Rams must win this game against the New York Jets at home. On the road, I could live with a loss, but at home, we must win. The “must” part is not arising from a fantasy that we are a far superior team to the Jets. There are no teams in this league that we outclass by a large margin. Instead, the “must” part of the win comes from how well this games sets up for the Rams.

We are at home, which Vegas considers a huge advantage. The Jets are in a perpetual state of disarray (due to their coaches’ complete lack of discipline), but this week has been a ship-wreck for the Jets as they are having loyalty and teamwork issues. Anonymous source has been added to the roster, and he has been active this week.

Furthermore, I can’t think of a defense that I would prefer to face in the NFL other than the Jets from a strength weakness standpoint. The Jets are strong against the pass and weak against the run. The strength against the pass comes from pressure and an ability to shut down stars. That strength actually is a weakness against us.

It is tough to pressure the Rams as Sam Bradford is at the top of the league in his ability to get rid of the ball quickly. According to Bernie Miklasz on 101 ESPN, before the San Francisco game, Sam Bradford was getting rid of the ball in 2.61 seconds on average. I forget where he got the stat, but the source had used a stop watch to time every throw this year. Bradford’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly minimizes the Jets ability to pressure him.

Furthermore, the Rams lack of any star receiver on offense. It a twisted way, this helps us in this game. It makes it difficult for the Jets to focus on anyone. This takes away another advantage the Jets typically have on defense.

Against the run, the Jets are 30^th in the league allowing 4.4 yards per attempt and 145 yards a game. The Rams strength on offense is their well-rounded ability to run the ball. The Rams can wear you down because they have three running backs that can play. In theory, they could run the ball on every play and still have a fresh running back. They also have an ability to run behind the guards, inside the tackles, or outside the tackles.

Last week proved that the Rams will continue to run the ball even if they are not having tremendous success. Steven Jackson had 29 runs last week and only 101 total yards. That 3.5 yard average would scare no one, but 3.5 yards 29 times at least causes fatigue.

For the record, the two teams worse behind the Jets in ability to stop the run are Buffalo and New Orleans. I still prefer to face the Jets. Both the Bills and Saints are improving the last two weeks and both have an offense that could present problems for the Rams.

This leads to the other factor I like about this matchup. The Jets are the only team in the NFL with a worse receiver core than the Rams, especially with Holmes out. Who on this team do you fear and say, “Boy, the Rams must stop him”?

Moreover, the Jets’ quarterback is a mental wreck. He has never had to earn anything in his football career and it shows. He was given the starting job at USC. He left before he should have (according to his own coach), and yet he was still handed the job in New York. They won despite him for a few years. Now that he has to do something to help his team win, he is failing in every way. I am not suggesting that Mark Sanchez has no skills. I am not a sage enough talent evaluator to disagree with all of the life-long scouts who suggested Sanchez was worthy of a first round pick. From time to time, you can see the skills. However, Sanchez can’t put it all together, and I believe it arises from a lack of mental strength. His inaccuracy, especially in the red zone, is astonishing.

Finally, the Jets have shown a commitment to run the ball, but they have not had tremendous success. The Rams have shown an ability to control the run against anyone, so I am not concerned.

Here are the factors that I believe will lead to a Rams win.

1.         30+ Touches for RBs

This may become a standard part of my preview because it seems so obvious. Steven Jackson needs carries to have any ability to wear the other team down. Also, part of his value comes from his presence alone. Teams still focus on him, which helps the passing game. Therefore, Steven Jackson needs 15 to 20 rushes per game, and I would prefer numbers closer to 20 than 15.

At the same time, Richardson offers us very little value with only 5 touches a game. If he can get the ball 10 times a game (pass or run), he brings a real threat for an explosive play, which we need on offense. No matter how many times Jackson gets the ball, he offers almost no threat for an explosive play. He hasn’t had a run longer than 50 yards in three years, and his longest run in that time frame led to a torn muscle. This year his longest run is 23 yards and his longest catch is 22 yards. I love Steven Jackson, but he is definitely on the downward side of the bell curve. Therefore, we need to give Richardson a chance to break a big play, which means he needs carries. I also would like to see Pead continue to play and gain experience. We can’t give up on him yet.

2.         SPECIAL TEAMS AND TURNOVERS

We can’t give up big plays on special teams. I honestly do not expect the Jets to score more than 20 points on offense alone. Therefore, we need to ensure they get nothing big from special teams, and make the offense work. As always, we need to win the turnover battle. The statistics prove that the number one stat for wins and losses in the NFL is turnover ratio. If we win that stat, we will win this game.

I am not asking for anything special from our special teams. I doubt we will see any fakes this week after two fake punts last week. I also doubt we will see a big return on punt return or kickoff return. Why? Well, what have you seen so far that makes you think we have an explosion coming on either?

3.         DEFENSE

I think we now know what we have on defense. We are not safe at safety. In fact, much of our defense appears to be a safeguard to protect our safeties. I can see no other explanation for out tendency to abandon the middle of the field and run backwards to the sticks on long downs other than downright fear that anything that gets past the linebackers may not end until the endzone. I have seen this all year, and I now call it the linebacker trot. It is annoying, but it is also one of the reasons we get off the field on third down.

We should be comfortable that our defensive tackles will plug up the middle of the line and that our ends will get pressure. We know that Dunbar and Laurinaitis will pile up tackles. Otherwise, there are some obvious holes in our defense which most teams will exploit.

We do a horrible job of actually covering the running back out of the backfield. Yes, we get there quickly after the catch, but we rarely put someone on the RB. With the linebacker trot, the middle of the field is almost always exposed on long downs, which means there is an obvious safe place to throw the ball. With some well planned blocks thereafter, we are susceptible to some big plays on long downs.  Even without the big play, we almost guarantee a completion on second and long or third and long to someone over the middle.

We also have a young corner who thinks he knows everything and anticipates plays.  He is obviously susceptible to a double move and everyone in the NFL knows it.

All of these strengths and weakness lead to a bend don’t break defense that eventually wins the third down battle and gets off the field.  If not, when the field gets compressed in the red zone, we do not have to fear our safeties, and we allow our playmakers to make plays. I do not expect to see anything different today. The one problem with our defense is a lack of pressure leads to an exposure of our safeties (meaning they actually have to do their job) and the potential for deep throws.  Thus, the key for the Rams is getting pressure on the quarterback in whatever manner necessary. Without pressure our entire defense falls apart.

4.         James Laurinaitis

I am giving him his own paragraph because I keep seeing comments about his down year. For everyone out there, James Laurinaitis is now 4^th in the entire NFL in tackles. I hear some suggest that tackles do not mean anything. Notwithstanding the lunacy of that statement, I will note that the following three players lead the Rams in tackles, James Laurinaitis, Cortland Finnegan and Jo-Lonn Dunbar. Also, for those of you wanting him to get more tackles behind the line and at the line, please explain to me how that happens when we line him up deeper than the six in front of him, and he is often asked to run backwards rather than forwards. My point is this. Before you complain about what Laurinaitis doesn’t do, you might want to consider what he is being asked to do.